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LoJack Corporation Message Board

  • value_ballast value_ballast Feb 22, 2011 5:02 PM Flag

    Stock is really cheap ex cash

    $44mm net cash, 100mm mkt cap. Company trading at $60mm. Not bad for 7-10mm in CFC generation.

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    • Another difference between LOJN and Onstar, etc. is that LOJN's product does not operate off of GPS. Therefore, the signal omitted by LOJN's product can reverberate through concrete, steel shipping containers, etc. Whereas GPS does not have this capability. Furthermore, LOJN offers several other products as well.

      • 1 Reply to brawhman
      • I agree. The whole GPS vs. RF debate is moot, IMHO. GPS is good in some areas, while RF is better in other circumstances. I tend to believe that RF is much better for most of LOJN's geographies, especially in high theft countries, like Brazil, because GPS is easier to evade, as you've pointed out. But, I'm sure someone can argue the other side in favor of GPS.

        FYI, I read the JP Morgan report and they claim Brazil is 20% of LOJN's revenues. This is entirely erroneous and if the selling today was based on that claim, the stock will rebound in the coming weeks when people realize that the Brazil lawsuit is much ado about nothing.

    • yeah, and the funny thing is that JP Morgan will now have to upgrade the stock since their downgrade has sent it down to $4.30 already and they have a $7 target. These brokerage reports are a joke.

    • Today's price action is due to JP Morgan downgrading the stock to neutral,target price 7,so we are probably at the very bottom here

    • 95mm - 45mm = 50mm EV. Will generate 5-10mm in cash this year. Cheap stock. PE bait.

      • 1 Reply to value_ballast
      • I agree. LOJN's valuation is silly cheap. The company's main competitor (that is publicly traded) is ITRN. ITRN has the same size business, in vehicle location, as LOJN and is valued at nearly $300 million! ITRN has a monopoly in Israel, so their margins are obviously higher (less sales expense), but still there is no reason why they should be worth so much more than LOJN (the Israeli market is no longer growing much).

        Some blogs are hyping ITRN because of a play on stolen vehicles in Brazil, but in reality LOJN is bigger than ITRN in Brazil! The difference is that LOJN operates in Brazil as a licensor, so it doesn't recognize all the revenues (only license fees), while ITRN is selling direct. But, net, net the growth potential is the same.

        Some would say GPS technology is better than LOJN's old RF technology. But again this is an exaggeration. It all depends on the area. In some places, like Sao Paulo, Brazil, RF is much better than GPS due the ability of thieves to more easily evade GPS. In other places, GPS may be better. Net, net the growth potential is there for both technologies.

        I am surprised nobody has made a bid for LOJN yet. I am sure there funds looking at this.

 
LOJN
5.08-0.11(-2.12%)Jul 22 4:00 PMEDT

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