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Longwei Petroleum Investment Holding Limited Message Board

  • hshinti hshinti Oct 12, 2012 9:24 PM Flag

    Kevin Chen Part 2 Rips a basher into pieces

    Joe, I do not review your claimed trading records. Nor am I interested in it. If you are indeed successfully trading LPH ups and downs with the successfully scaring people to sell and push the stock down from time to time over the past 2 years, it reinforce what I said: the stock dropped because people like you from time to time wrongfully and purposefully give baseless attacks and sell the public one after another baseless daunting stories to invoke selling from innocent investors.

    I would say I am very “anti-bashing”, not pumping, on LPH. If I am trying to tell people to buy a stock at P/E of 70+, like NFLX was at its high last year and so many analysts were still yelling buy buy buy, I would be pumping the stock. When you have an oil distributor stock being bashed all the way from $4 to $1+ and P/E of just above 2 basing on all kinds of crazy thoughts and careless generalization from things happened on other stocks, not the compnay, and almost all its peers in the world trade at P/E of 8 or higher, the scale is so absurdly tilted that the burden of proof is not on the basher’s side. Unfortunately so far all proofs are strongly against your “something is wrong” thesis.

    You are so much burry your own seriously biased entrenched negative view and fraud assumption that you have ignored all the hard data and events that completed prove you wrong and tried to make innocent investors (especially those who just got to know the stock recently) who know nothing much than looking at price trends buy your negative thought.

    Now, if you still cannot get rid of the thinking of “but but … they do not do every little thing that I think they should do in exactly timing and order that I think they should do …”, I can tell you that there is no way a company can satisfy every shareholder’s (or potential shareholder’s) wishes, and in fact to steer the company’s business over the long run they should not try to satisfy all wishes from all investors, many of them are conflicting one another. The fact the Longwei does not do all things you want it to do at the exact time and manner you think they should have been done has nothing to do with if it is legitimate or not. Step out from your existing feeling/thoughts about the stock and think objectively for stocks in general; you’ll see immediately how ridicule this kind of reasoning is. Applying your reasoning, I think Apple is probably a fraud because iPhone 5 and iPad 2 did not came out the time I thought they should have come out (how many times have Apple or Microsoft delayed introductions of key products? I lost the count with my limited number of fingers) and because I think a “legitimate” company should not try to gather clients’ information from their phones secretly (you know what incidents I am talking about). Now if the management team did not do everything you ask for and as a result has truned the company into a big loss every quarter, you then have more right to damn them, but it is not the case with Longwei. They know their business very well and been doing the business in a very stable albeit conservative way (another strong evidence that they have no intention to play fancy tricks on financials to fool investors).

    Let me tell you why this company doesn’t “smell right” to you: because it is real and clean and thus your core assumption that it is a fraud is completely wrong. As a result, naturally the management team’s behaviors and key events don’t happen as you expected and don’t smell right for your reasoning of a company that is fraud. You just keep on refusing to acknowledge your biggest mistake right from the beginning and instead keep on trying so hard to justify your fraud assumption.

    According to what you and a couple long-time bashers’ assertion, because LPH is a fraud so ANY OF THE FOLLLOWING THINGS should not happen, which I agree because that makes total logical sense:

    1. The Auditor should not have signed its 2011 10-K or 2012 10-K and should have resigned each year before the company published its 10-K  Wrong: auditor signed 10-K reports within expedited filer deadline.

    2. Reconciliation between SEC reports and Chinese SAIC / SAT reports, which has been touted by all shorts and biggest shorts houses as super big matter for all fraud Chinese companies because they would not dare to lie to Chinese business registration offices and more importantly tax agencies (I again totally agree on this reasoning) definitely would not be published  Wrong: the company published reconciliation with images of tax records and actually went beyond investors’ request and had the reconciliation signed by its auditor (that’s why it took so long)!

    3. Huajie would never be closed since the transaction is a total scam and/or the company does not have enough working capital to complete the purchase without external funding  Wrong: it is closed last month.

    4. Resounding assertion over the past 1 year or so: the company will “soon” issue new shares at a price as low as $1 (that’s the number I remembered seeing in one of your post on Yahoo message board)  Wrong, the company had a strong statement from CEO last June that the company would not issue any new shares directly or indirectly (e.g. warrant) under $3, and the company have kept that promise over the past 1.5 years or so!

    All these points are purely black-and-white matters. There is no gray area that “sort of” prove you are right or wrong. Either the company does any of them or not. The actual outcome of each event overruled your prediction 100%. If I am a presidential candidate and I am proven 100% wrong on 4 critically important issues, I will be too shamed to stay in the campaign for one more day and just withdraw and keep my mouth shot. As a person who has been doing forecasting for 15 years, I will throw my model into trash can without thinking for a second if 4 key requirements of the underlining assumption of my model is proven violated.

    I think this is what you need to look yourself in mirror and think deeply tonight: “Ok, it’s all right. I am wrong, and it is not too late to admit it and take a whole new perspective on this stock. Even the best trader in the world will be wrong sometimes. To save my reputation and dignity I have better confess on my misjudgment in this case and move on rather than keep on muddling in a state of denial.”

    Now, I am not saying that you won’t be successful any bit in keep on misleading/confusing some investors/traders and influence the stock price down for the advantage of your short-term trading. I am just saying that for the matter of being minimally ethic and having minimum conscience, you should restrain yourself from bashing the stock until the management team has done something terribly bad that materially destroy shareholders’ value on a real business basis (not on a basis that they cannot totally rebuff all weird and crazy associations, attacks, and demands thrown on to them from super imaginative bashers).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Clarification - I realize the poster above (Hsinti) merely copied a reply on the SeekingAlpha website. The quote was something written by Kevin Chen, which was a reply to Joe Natural on a SeekingAlpha article comment that Joe made. Kevin Chen is an analyst who has written multiple articles for SeekingAlpha. Kevin does not post directly on Yahoo stock message board discussions.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Excellent points Kevin. Who does one believe - ChickenHats, the two-bit China stock bipolar alternating short/long who holds positions 2 days at the most and spends half his time bashing and bragging in chatrooms that he is "going to the LPH board to spread terror"...or else a respected, established analyst with considerable experience like yourself?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • contrarianvalueinvestor contrarianvalueinvestor Oct 25, 2012 12:33 AM Flag

      From the archives

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Great work Kevin, soon LPH will be the trailblazer for several RTO's that are starting to come to life. Longs (large or small positions) will be rewarded. The PCAOB in concert with Chinese Authorities over the next few months are going to change the face of this sector, which was hammered by short sellers and fear mongers for the last 2 years. This collaboration will inject renewed institutional interest in these US Listed Companies and with that, substantially higher share price

      When the big move comes, I'll be there.

      I cannot imagine the few here that are trying to trade the stock, buy the open? play the fade? short the gap ups? It doesn't move enough to make it worthwhile, so they try to manipulate it for a few pennies (and the have done poorly I might add) We have attracted a few bashers turned buyers, amateur geriatric shorts, washed out marine merchants (that has obviously been well acquainted with peyote) and basement dwellers that pound out any garbage they can.

      I suppose, if you do have to pay your bills in this environment, you will make questionable decisions by doing or saying anything.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Fantastic post by hshinti- all should read before bashing. Btw i just bought into this stock after doing my own dd.

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