Egypt produces very little oil. About as much as Australia. I suspect as soon as the turmoil dies down, economic forces will re-exert themselves and the glut of oil in the pipeline will once again force prices downward. Might buy puts if UCO passes $13 and jump back into the stock if it gets back down into the low 10's.
Actually, if you read these two articles closely, they do not support your premise. The bottom line is supply and demand. Everything else is just noise. Right now, there is more supply than demand, despite what is going on in Egypt. However, in the long view, you are correct... oil will go much higher.
No matter what government takes over, if any, they are not going to block the canal and give up the 6 billion in revenues it brings in. Same is true if hostile governments come to power in S.Arabia and the likes, they will need the petro revenue.
The problem seems to be the shortage of wheat, due to the poor harvest this year in the far north regions, causing food price to go up. Iran and Saudi Arabia have had some protests that had to be quelled as well. Egypt where many people live on less than $2 a day, rises in food prices can be devastating. Going without food can cause tempers to flair, and the masses lash out at government.