One Penny Off ...no Biggie and the 200 day will be lower tomorrow,So It's right on.
RSI at 35.28...Was here at end of Jan.And Bounced from 10.75 to 12.50 in 2 Days, I'm all for Deja Vu hows about you?
I am confused. How is the 200 day average of an ETF that changes composition EVERY month relevant? Last month was a blend of equally weighted futures contracts going out to the end of the year. This month as of yesterday UCO is solely in the MAY crude futures contract.
Within the 200 day MA of UCO you have apples and oranges - it does not give you a true picture. I would be looking at 200 day moving averages of underlying futures contracts of UCO. That would be May's contract this month for UCO.
I have read about decay, and that is a concern I guess. Spread with Brent is interesting I guess, but if I was long UCO I would be concerned about a flattening of the WTI oil futures chain in the short term. (Like Brent is right now - basically same price all the way out). May is coming down much quicker today than March, and a little quicker than April. If March continues to drop this week until expiration and the pattern holds - no moving average of UCO is going to be any kind of indicator You could see a price on UCO 4-6% less than todays close.
Hope this is helpful.
UCO does incredible volume each day so supply and demand for the ETF are kind of like the tail waging the futures dog. The 200 DMA does matter for UCO traders and it has an effect the futures just as the futures 200 DMA will also affect the ETF. They don't have to be the same to cause an affect on the other.
but that was with help from egypt urest, so far the unrestsss doesn't seem to help.
I dont dare touch it , i just sit and watch , look what it did in june from 14 to 8 w/ no problem , but back then down went below 10K , it's too strong now dont see it happening , but you never know , that's why i just watch , i kicked myself for not getting in at 8 back then , i dont think i can stomach 10.5 going to 8 , so i'll just sit and watch (no fun, wish im more brave )
Did you notice that the TransCanada pipeline to Cushing has been finished? We're going to be flooded with oil for a while..........pretty much until Obama figures out how to get people jobs. Your oil bull run is over just like it ended in 2008.
The more I read stuff like this:
the more I think the bubble has burst. Thats why I'm not long or short right now. If we get a decent up day I might go short again.