Study some history. He held the country together. It's a land of chieftains and centuries old conflict. It was formed by England and Italy and will escalate into a multiyear civil war that will probably require what happened in Bosnia. Oil output will suffer no matter what. NG and oil to EU will be severely affected. Italy has 350 thousand workers it is trying to get out and many of its businesses are probably screwed. So are the multis like BP.