I do not short
I have not sold any shares...and I have more shares...I would guess... than anyone else who posts on this board. I have solid positions in various aspects of the market. Cramer would say...are you diversified...yes I am
But I have a portion that I play with, it is not an unsubstantial amount of money. SZYM has more potential than any other stock that I follow. It is why Credit Suisse has named it the stock most likely to increase in value in 2013.
But the concerns I raise should concern any other investor.
Why do the revenues for out quarters always fall?
Why are the earnings estimates for out quarters always falling?
I love the story...but at some point the story has to combine with reality. And nothing that SZYM has done in the last 12 months indicated that those two points will converge.
Please do not talk of "keeping margins secret" or other BS insider hokum.
Bunge JV indicated that the facility in Brazil would be up and running by the "harvest of 2013". That would have been in April 2013. Now the facility is scheduled...as of now...to be opened during the 4Q13. It will cost $44 million more than originally estimated. OPINION-I don't think it will open this year, it will be at least 2Q14 before anything comes out of that plant, Basis for opinion...convertible
Fact-SRN 5000 mt facility- supposed to be open by 1Q13 or earlier, now supposedly 2Q13. Opinion-will not open until 4Q13. Basis for opinion-Experience- when a company starts floating the possibility that a plant opening will be late...then tack another 3 months to whatever they are floating.
Fact-Clinton-This is the grand poobah of #$%$. Ask yourself... I have 100 million dollars, at least, tied up in a facility, and somebody comes along and shows that that facility came make tons of money...millions upon millions of dollars of money...and you say...OK, but you can't make us any money for the next 15 months. This is either a complete sandbag or it means its scale up is bogus on some level.
NOTHING ELSE MAKES SENSE.
Stop arguing with me on this one. If they are sandbagging then I think a class action lawsuit should be launched against them from anybody who sold between December 2013 and now. If there is "fly in the ointment" about scaling up, then I will sue them for delivering false information to shareholders.
This is not my first rodeo, and I used to think that the management at SZYM were forthcoming and first class.
Now I am not sure of either.
I simply ask this
Wolfson and Dillon will not sell any shares or vote themselves any more shares until the company is cash flow positive. It is an epiphany I had while in my garage. Just as Wolfson realized that algae grown in open ponds could never create oil competitive with existing markets, so I have realized that Salesmen masquerading as CEO's will drain investors from all available cash until they are cut off.
Next shareholders meeting there will be a resolution to deny any more shares to executives until the company is cash flow positive. I expect it to fail, but at least the notion that Wolfson and Harrison are nothing more than scam artists will begin to circulate in their social circles. Shunning might do them some good, and prevent others for falling for this scam.
I would love to be proved wrong... but the dropping revenue and earnings estimates tell me I am right.
Jon and Harrison, time to end the pretending.
Put up or shut up.
This is a scam huh?
They have missed one deadline on SRN's plant by a quarter or two. SRN's revenues aren't even going to be recorded on Solazyme's balance sheet till it is profitable, and it is a good possibility it won't even become profitable till the 50,000 ton facility is done. That delay just doesn't mean much toward the stock price.
They have missed no deadline on Moema. Since the day they broke ground they have said 4th quarter 13. Did they want to build it earlier sure, but it didn't happen and you can't complain about it now since construction has not been delayed at all to this point. I'm sure they wanted to build it 5 years ago, you going to hold that against them too?
What this is really all about is your fascination with Clinton. You somehow convinced yourself their was going to be revenues from Clinton booked for December, and now realize you were wrong. I told you then that was a dumb thing to expect. The company has never said anything other than 1Q 14, just because you convinced yourself otherwise and now realize you were wrong does not make it a SCAM.
With that said I still expect Clinton to be producing before 1Q 14. Seems likely to me they just want to perfect their process so that when they do announce it is open for business they can hit nameplate quickly and be off to the races. After all what would be better, announce Clinton is ready for production now before you have perfected the process and driven down costs and disappoint, or hold off and have everything appear to go incredibly smoothly in contrast to Amyrsis/Gevo.
What you should think about Clinton is wow, they got use of a plant for virtually no capital - that is an incredible coup. After all just 4 months ago no one even dreamed they could get use of capacity so cheap. Management should be celebrated for getting that capacity at all, not condemned cause you want it producing now.
If there was really anything to worry about do you really think they would have just got 180 million at less than 6% when no one else in biofuels can get money at much worse terms? Your being completely unreasonable, management has done very well thus far. There will be setbacks, they are inventing an entirely new technology after all, if you want no setbacks get out of this stock now.
The amount of cash taken by Wolfson and Harrison does not concern me, people have to live. have you ever been to SF. I am concerned by anyone who is calling them scam artists with no evidence of any scam. I am concerned by anyone who says that there would be grounds for a shareholder lawsuit if the Clinton plant has more Revenue than expected. These two statements strike me as odd perhaps unbalanced. I love the part where you tell myself and others that you have more shares than anyone on the board. If you have more shares than me, and feel this way about the stock, you are beyond unbalanced. when you start talking about Shunning Wolfson and Harrison or wasting time at a shareholders meeting on some half-baked resolution, I get a visual of a man wearing a sandwich board outside a Grey Hound station. am i getting close?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You need to be patient. There is REAL MONEY behind Solazyme as well as the government. In standing up the plants with their processes there is a lot of process engineering that takes place. Along with CS, GS has a buy on the stock with a price target of 18. The bottom line here is PATIENCE.
Looking at earnings projections they will not be earnings positive until 2014 so their is always implied risk investing in a company without positive EPS. Do we have to wait until positive EPS for the stock to go up? NO - as they ramp up operations growth in all areas will accelerate.
Yes it is a speculative stock but it is a whole lot less speculatve than it was last year. Hang in there - renewables are growing worldwide and SZYM is in a good position.
wow. calm down.
1) 2013 cane harvest. That was "targeted" in the framework agreement on Aug 8, 2011. Before Bunge even formally signed on board w/ the JV.
2) Original delay in SRN phase 2 was announced, but no additional delays have been announced & the most recent interview by food navigator actually supports a Q2 on schedule operation start-up.
3) The conference call stated the plant needed minimal fix up but that they still had some downstream processing equipment they needed. Naturally, that requires specifications, sourcing, financing, ordering, manufacturing, installation, etc. This was before they announced scale-up. That scale-up did not state commercial operations. The compnay reaffirmed 2014 start-up in that announcement. They have consistently stated 2014 start-up.
All said.... I have no clue what your point is. If you are really fearful, you should sell. It's unhealthy for you to hold a position you have no faith in. As for what the company's saying, it makes sense to me. Even if delays occur, as is natural in the course of business, the company's in a very good position.
I concur and as far as his gripe with insider selling, thats just another normal part of investing in a public company. It is a huge part of their compensation and the top guys own millions of shares, they will also receive more shares once again as compensation. If the stock were trading 12-15 he would not say one word about the planned sales.