Which analysts? And what is this being based on? Also, some of the price targets as high as $34 are based on estimates all the way from 2011. The company has definitely changed too much since then for those estimates to still be up to date. Even UBS's estimate was from June of 2012, almost a year ago
If you prefer not to use the analyst estimates, then go by Solazyme's own guidance which was a 20% increase in revenue over 2012 revenues of 44.11 million. (52.93 million - lower than the analysts, but you have to figure they are being conservative)
SZYM went from $14 to $6.50 in 3 months (Aug-Nov 2012).
As risk gets taken out of this stock when we get closer to Q3/Q4 and the real commercial revenues which Wall Street has been expecting and waiting for, we can easily move up $8 in 3 months. Q2 (April-June) will be very interesting for Solazyme.
Analyst estimates for Q1, Q2, and 2013
Q1 - 8.40 million
Q2 - 11.21 million
2013 - 59.94 million
What's amazing to think about is Q1 is coming to a close next week!
This brings us to Q2 - the last Quarter before revenues start to exponentially rise over the next few years.
This brings us to Q2 - the last Quarter of where R&D + Algenist revenue are the drivers.
Q2 will bring the hungry investors to the table who have been more risk-averse. I expect SZYM to rise to the teens ($13/$14 by end of Q2) as expectation gets built into the stock price.
Then with the successful opening of both the SRN plant in France and the Bunge plant in Brazil in Q3/Q4 you can reasonably expect Solazyme to rise above IPO levels. This is not wishful thinking. This is based on the NPV of future cash flows tied together with IP/Patents (disruptive technology) which investors will pay a premium for.
You mentioned that one analyst still has $34 Price Target on the books? In the next 12-15 months this is definitely possible.
-- The wildcard we all discuss is operating expense. In short, if milestones are achieved and they nail the margins they've been discussing during each CC, then $34 is easy!