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Solazyme, Inc. Message Board

  • szym4life szym4life Mar 20, 2013 12:27 PM Flag

    Here's a positive way to look at revenue growth... it's coming soon.

    Look at analyst estimates for Q1, Q2, and 2013
    Q1 - 8.40 million
    Q2 - 11.21 million
    2013 - 59.94 million

    If you subtract out the first 2 quarters from the full year number - you get almost 20 million per quarter in Q3 and Q4. I would go so far as to suggest that might we expect a 30 million number in Q4?

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • I got 150 million in revenue for 2014....using 50% of name plate (100,000 Moema + 20,000 ADM)

      60,000 MT X $2500/MT

      Take it to the thread please!!!!!

    • Which analysts? And what is this being based on? Also, some of the price targets as high as $34 are based on estimates all the way from 2011. The company has definitely changed too much since then for those estimates to still be up to date. Even UBS's estimate was from June of 2012, almost a year ago

      • 4 Replies to imshirazy
      • If you prefer not to use the analyst estimates, then go by Solazyme's own guidance which was a 20% increase in revenue over 2012 revenues of 44.11 million. (52.93 million - lower than the analysts, but you have to figure they are being conservative)

        Sentiment: Buy

      • SZYM went from $14 to $6.50 in 3 months (Aug-Nov 2012).

        As risk gets taken out of this stock when we get closer to Q3/Q4 and the real commercial revenues which Wall Street has been expecting and waiting for, we can easily move up $8 in 3 months. Q2 (April-June) will be very interesting for Solazyme.

        Buckle Up!

      • Analyst estimates for Q1, Q2, and 2013
        Q1 - 8.40 million
        Q2 - 11.21 million
        2013 - 59.94 million

        What's amazing to think about is Q1 is coming to a close next week!
        This brings us to Q2 - the last Quarter before revenues start to exponentially rise over the next few years.
        This brings us to Q2 - the last Quarter of where R&D + Algenist revenue are the drivers.

        Q2 will bring the hungry investors to the table who have been more risk-averse. I expect SZYM to rise to the teens ($13/$14 by end of Q2) as expectation gets built into the stock price.

        Then with the successful opening of both the SRN plant in France and the Bunge plant in Brazil in Q3/Q4 you can reasonably expect Solazyme to rise above IPO levels. This is not wishful thinking. This is based on the NPV of future cash flows tied together with IP/Patents (disruptive technology) which investors will pay a premium for.

        You mentioned that one analyst still has $34 Price Target on the books? In the next 12-15 months this is definitely possible.

        -- The wildcard we all discuss is operating expense. In short, if milestones are achieved and they nail the margins they've been discussing during each CC, then $34 is easy!

      • I will argue things have gotten better since, ADM was not in the picture and neither was the Bunge expansion or Mitsui

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