You may keep your sell sentiment. But the real thesis here is that pork is the main meat source in China. Demand is high and increase over the time. Recent pork price hike is real and painful. With yen rising value vs. $, that should be the winning thesis of long.
If you (or CER) had read the 2010 annual report, (.pdf page 23; 10-k p.13) you would know that they describe their showcase stores, branded stores and supermarket brand counters, and that selling in inside of another store like 7-11 falls into their (pre-CER report) definition of branded store.
But by all means sell all your stock and keep spreading fear; it is what distorts the price and lets me buy into this company at below dirt cheap prices. Even if they are overstating revenue by 20-30% like CER says (and I have no reason to believe they are; management's response has been a lot more credible than CER's report), I am still picking up a growth stock at a 7 ttm p/e, as opposed to 5 if the numbers are right.
<ie misaligned cashflows> could you please provide detail as to how cash flows are "misaligned"
<poor management accountability quotient> Can you please define this?
<lack of inventory control> based on what, please detail.
<attempts pull revenue forward or defer expenses> - please provide specific examples in their financial statements where they have attempted this.
I followed John Bird's comments on China-Biotics. The discussion was tribalised as always, but Waldo (John Bird) was throughout a voice of reason. I would say that Waldo's credibility is very high based on his track record. He could be wrong this time of course, but I doubt it. The Zhongpin story is to fishy.
Thorleif Jackson, Denmark
If I were long I would consider the list as the death knell. It will be a trivial exercise to prove that many of the non-specific locations do not exist. Apparently HOGS doesn't need a street address to identify the store locations. Probably makes it tough to get mail or deliveries.
It is also strange how the numbering of the stores is unbroken. It is impossible not to have some locations fall out on you. Leases expire, building is refurbished, better spot opens across the block, some stores fail, etc. But HOGS presents a perfectly ordered and numbered list with no gaps. Just an impression, but the numbering seems to follow a geographic sequence rather than a sequence you would expect in a retail expansion. You don't open your 4th store in a big city 6 blocks away from your third store.
The HOGS rebuttal was as damning as the article. These guys are toast.
You rock!! I see the ECF difference now and every other forensic accounting red flag that I should have keyed in on. Bought awhile ago so limited my losses to 10%. On behalf of small retail investors everywhere, thank you for steering us clear of these CHICOM frauds. As an aside, do you think china will ever care about their external reputations in the capital markets and prosecute any of these charlatains?
You are full of %&it. I know you have not ever been over sea and is now talking out of your %&se. I have been over there many times and can tell you that most stores that supply to local residents do not need a specific address because the local distributors would know where they are at after the first delivery is made and from then on, it is marked down for regular delivery.
The posts on this board are almost exactly like the posts from CHBT & CCME before those frauds were delisted. All that is missing is the "anonymous letter" sent to the auditor...or was it already sent?