Using EOG estimate ranges on costs and production, I came up with revenues of $1.9b to 2.1b or EPS range from $70 (worse case) -$1.03 (best case). The analyst have a high EPS of $1.15 to a low of $.24 with a avg est of $.87. I assume no derivative impact or sale of assets and an average price for crude of $90, $45 for natgasL and $4.50 for natgas. Keep in mind, EOG hedged crude at $97 for 30k/day and 88% gas hedged at approx $4.80. I used costs at the same percentage as 2nd q. This is a quick estimate, but is a starting point. I would welcome any input as to upside on production or changes to costs, etc. My best case production numbers were 124k/d for crude, 44k/d natgasL, and natgas production flat with 2ndq. tks K
Anyone have any input on what the production levels are going to be for this q? Prices have pulled back some, but EOG still knock the ball out of the park on the production side....I haven't heard any problems...weather is great in Bakken.. K
I have reworked my estimate based upon updated hedging data as well as lower crude prices. EOG is currently hedged 88% on natgas @ an avg price of $4.73. They are hedge on crude at 26% with a avg price of $97.02.
Here are my assumptions: 1. I assumed the high side of their estimate range for crude, ngasl and natgas. 2. I also have not assume any hedging gain or losses (should crude fall below $65 before the end of this month..then I will be wrong on this assumption) 3. No gains from sale of assets. EOG has indicated they plan to have further sales in the 2nd half of 2011 so this may be off, but it will at least be off on the positive side. 4. I also assumed an avg price of $90 for the remainder of the unhedged crude...this may be close since prices have been lower. 5. I assumed Marketing and other income as the same as 2nd q. This may be on the low side. 6. I assumed the costs would remain on a percentage basis the same as 2ndq.
With this, I came up with a revenue figure of $2.27 which is the highest analyst forecast and basically flat with 2ndq (excluding hedging and asset gains). With my assumptions, this would provide EPS north of $1.00 or very near the high end of the analyst estimates.
This should be good news for the 3rdq if I am correct. If they are able to exceed their product ranges, this would be pure gravey!
Hope the board can give a critique or input on this info. I could have missed some thing and am soliciting input. thanks k