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EOG Resources, Inc. Message Board

  • deridder64 deridder64 Aug 28, 2011 6:54 PM Flag

    3rdq revenues

    Using EOG estimate ranges on costs and production, I came up with revenues of
    $1.9b to 2.1b or EPS range from $70 (worse case)
    -$1.03 (best case). The analyst have a high
    EPS of $1.15 to a low of $.24 with a avg
    est of $.87. I assume no derivative impact
    or sale of assets and an average price for crude of $90, $45 for natgasL and $4.50 for
    natgas. Keep in mind, EOG hedged crude at
    $97 for 30k/day and 88% gas hedged at approx
    $4.80. I used costs at the same percentage
    as 2nd q. This is a quick estimate, but is
    a starting point. I would welcome any
    input as to upside on production or changes
    to costs, etc. My best case production
    numbers were 124k/d for crude, 44k/d natgasL,
    and natgas production flat with 2ndq.
    tks K

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    • Anyone have any input on what the production levels are going to be for this q? Prices
      have pulled back some, but EOG still knock
      the ball out of the
      park on the production
      side....I haven't heard
      any is great in Bakken..

      • 2 Replies to deridder64
      • I have reworked my estimate based upon updated
        hedging data as well as lower crude prices. EOG is currently hedged 88% on natgas @ an avg price of $4.73. They are hedge on crude at
        26% with a avg price of

        Here are my assumptions:
        1. I assumed the
        high side of their estimate range for
        crude, ngasl and natgas.
        2. I also have
        not assume any hedging
        gain or losses (should
        crude fall below $65 before the end of this month..then I will be
        wrong on this assumption)
        3. No gains from sale of assets. EOG has indicated they plan to have further sales in the 2nd half of 2011 so
        this may be off, but it will at least be off on the positive side.
        4. I also assumed an avg price of $90 for
        the remainder of the unhedged crude...this may be close since prices have been lower.
        5. I assumed Marketing and other income as the same as
        2nd q. This may be
        on the low side.
        6. I assumed the costs would remain on
        a percentage basis the same as 2ndq.

        With this, I came up with a revenue figure of $2.27 which is the
        highest analyst forecast and basically
        flat with 2ndq (excluding hedging and asset gains). With
        my assumptions, this
        would provide EPS north
        of $1.00 or very near the high end of the analyst estimates.

        This should be good news for the 3rdq if I am correct. If they
        are able to exceed their product ranges, this would be pure gravey!

        Hope the board can give a critique or input on this info. I could have missed some
        thing and am soliciting
        thanks k

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