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EOG Resources, Inc. Message Board

  • tyroneyeah tyroneyeah Jan 1, 2014 11:05 PM Flag

    PXD Earnings Preannouncement is OVERDUE. They said "a few weeks" after Nov 27th...

    -On the subject of Oil & Gas and Fracking plays, based on what PXD stated in their Nov 27 press release it looks like PXD may be preannouncing their late November freeze-related disaster losses sometime after quarter end.

    That means as soon as Jan 2 or Jan 3rd.

    I'm guessing the following:

    1) The freeze probably knocked out a substantial amount of the key operations (Revenue) in the Permian representing up to 1-2 weeks of production.

    2) Suppose the revenue loss was equivalent to 1 week out of the 12-week quarter...

    3) Last quarter's Oil & Gas revenues were $908M.

    4) 1/12 of $908M would represent $75.6M of lost revenues due to freeze loss

    5) Last quarter's Net income attributable to common stockholders was $91.1M

    6) So if we subtract the "Revenues due to Freeze Loss" from Net Income last quarter: $91.1M - $75.6M = $15.5M Net income in this quarter.

    7) $15.5M Net income represents an EPS of only about $0.21/share!! This compares to Current Analyst Consensus Estimate of $1.18/share

    *NOTE: This back-of-the-envelope calculation does NOT even include Capital Asset Losses due to the freeze and labor and materials cost to repair them!! So in addition to lost revenues, there will be higher EXPENSES.

    If the aforementioned freeze-related EXPENSES are subtracted, it looks like PXD might even be looking at a BREAKEVEN or loss for the quarter.

    **NOTE: Current Analyst Consensus Estimate of $1.18/share has come down from $1.26/share in the past 30 days since the Nov 27th Freeze Announcement. Clearly, estimates will need to come down a lot more after the preannouncement.

    My sense is that when PXD does preannounce an earnings miss this week or next, these numbers will surprise many PXD investors.

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