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Colonial Properties Trust Message Board

  • dprunning dprunning Dec 19, 2007 1:18 AM Flag

    A REIT Bargain

    Management estimates 2008 FFO of $2.20 per share and NAV of over $40.00 per share. The dividend yield is over 9%. A .47 per share non-cash impairment charge causes CLP to fall from $37 to $21, a 43% decline. Insiders are spending millions on stock purchases. Opportunities like this do not happen often.

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    • new to reits.

      where do you get the NAV? does that mean market value of net assets? would that $40 per share take into consideration declining RE values?

      thx to anyone willing to answer.

      • 1 Reply to addedupon1
      • According to the company in a recent presentation, NAV is $42.67.
        Go to the company website investor page and you can find the recent Wachovia presentation. Look at slide 20.
        Calculation is using real estate metrics of NOI and cap rates.
        My opinion is that credit crunch may discount it a little bit, but not more than 10%.
        This reminds me of the last credit crunch in 2002 discounting the pipeline companies. Many were overextended and had to shed assets. I had 6000 shares of Williams near $1.50 along with others, like ElPaso. I sold for WMB at 100% gain but if I held I would have had a 2000% gain. Opportunity of a lifetime became mistake of a lifetime.

        I think there must be some fear about risk associated with the company's near billion dollar pipeline.

        Maybe fear stems from the private Texas apartment REIT MBS that recently went bankrupt. I believe that was a company failure, not a market failure. My understanding is that they were into securitizing debt.

        I have no fear here.
        The demographics in the South are too strong, particularly with GenY moving out of Mom and Dads house and heading for the warm climate. If you talk to any 22 year old from the northeast or midwest, that is what most do- Leave. Also rural kids do the same thing- move to a nearby city. Most rural towns are bleeding away their youth population. 70 million kids.


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