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Aircastle LTD Message Board

  • harry.grubb harry.grubb Mar 26, 2008 9:07 PM Flag

    If you just discovered this stock?

    If you can put aside some of the recent bolts from the blue and other unusual economic issues and imagine that you're looking for good long term plays would you buy AYR? The reduced div is still strong based on current PPS, good fundamentals, some problems related to current credit crunch, trading well under book, possible buy out candidate, etc. The stock has traded in a tight range for a few days on gigantic volume, that some might interpret to indicate there are as many buyers as sellers in this price range. One or two good days could get it back to $15. Also, BKD (FIG company) took a hit after cutting the div in half and is up 10% in the last couple of days.

    The longs (most posters here) may be looking for the least painful way out, but this looks like a time when new money could be attracted to the company. It seems like the ideal time for the first leg in the buy low, sell high sequence. Retail interest rates like MMAs and CDs are dropping fast. When people realize that collecting 3 to 4% a year is a losing propostion compared to the REAL inflation rate, more money should start flowing into the market. It could take a couple of years or more, but I think this stock could see $20 to $25 PPS or higher again if someone doesn't try to buy it up sooner for less. That would be FIG's decision since they're still the majority shareholder. FIG did say in their conference call that they have holdings in several companies that are currently very undervalued so I don't think they're going to get lowballed.

    Even if the Bush tax cuts are allowed to expire, the 15% tax rate on divis stays the same for those with incomes under $250k and will likely increase gradually for higher income brackets.

    So, as a new investor, would you buy?

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    • humvee: "It is possible that they got caught in the middle of the credit freeze." Your conjecture. It is my understanding that the dividend was reduced 64% to conserve capital for "opportunistic investments". In other words, WE DON'T KNOW...FOR SURE, and I agree with that statement. If enough investors agree that a misrepresentation was made by Aircastle Ltd., we may eventually hear about a class action lawsuit against the company. If you remain an investor in AYR, good luck. I have placed a stop limit order, and if it hits my stop price, that will be it for me.

    • I fit the description. I am trying hard to develop the discipline to stop trading, and become a buy and hold income investor. I made my money trading. At the end of October, I discovered a recommendation for AYR here: I bought a bunch of income-producing equities. On 11/1/2007, I bought 1000 shares of AYR at $31.87 (Ouch!). On 3/22/2008, BIR Research upgraded AYR to their highest recommendation: Buy, Most Favorable. Their summary: "Strong Performance Ahead." On 3/24/2008, I bought 1000 more at 13.77. I hope doubling down was not simply throwing good money after bad. If I am really stupid, please tell me gently.

      • 1 Reply to gseglint
      • I watched this stock for several months. When I listened to the latest quarterly conference call and it was stated that they had sufficent cash flow to pay the dividend I bought. What happened between the call on Feb 22 and March 24 when the dividend was announced? Either the management wasn't completely forthcoming(lied) on the conference call or they didn't understand what was happening with their own business. Scary either way.

    • I am a new shareholder,I bought recently and looking to add more.
      The CEO also said that AYR cashflow is 3 times the dividend payout,so it is possible he would raise the dividend when the credit market stabilises.
      I think the credit facilities will be restored ,this cut is caused by BSC and to some extent CIT drawing down on their 7B lines of credit.
      A 7 billion credit facility is usually provided by a consortium of banks,I wont be surprised the other 2 AYR banks are involved.
      I did not just discovered this stock,I have been following this stock for months,I reviewed their 2006 annual and their 10k and 10k and all the press releases.
      This stock is not risk free but I am willing to take the risk at this price.

    • Anyone who discovers[?] Aircastle Ltd. and buys the stock will be suckers like the rest of us. The CEO is nothing more than a confidence man playing a great con game, and he won. The material that I read put out by the company was extremely impressive and influenced me to buy. The presentations were even more impressive, but the dividend record conned me the most. And, the stated objective was to grow the dividend. The CEO is a liar, and anything he says going forward should be subject to question. The phrase "opportunistic investments" sure is meaningful and sounds neat, but is there another reason why the dividend got reduced from $.70 to $.25? We may eventually find out.

      After hours -- down $.70 to $12.50. This may indicate tomorrow's market.

      One last thing: There are posters on this board blaming an individual for promoting this stock. If anyone was influenced by anything written on this board, that is your problem. It is ridiculous to throw blame, because you failed to do your own research.

      • 2 Replies to marvin339
      • You say: "The CEO is a liar, and anything he says going forward should be subject to question. The phrase "opportunistic investments" sure is meaningful and sounds neat, but is there another reason why the dividend got reduced from $.70 to $.25? We may eventually find out." This very well might be true - but then again - we don't know it for sure. The CEO could have gotten blindsided by the investment banks problems as much as a lot of Wall Street Pros did - and if this truthfully is the problem then we are way undervalued - however if what you say is true - this is a ticking time bomb!

      • i'm trying to understand their hedging strategy on their debt. does anyone have any details on what it is and what is happening with it? thanks.

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