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Aircastle LTD Message Board

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  • warlord_shea warlord_shea May 5, 2008 3:33 AM Flag

    Term Deal Consumated ... DIV has to be coming back

    I think this is incredible news for the longs on AYR (of which I am one). We've been waiting for good news for a while and this is proof positive that the company is not going under IMHO. I never saw solid proof the company was in jeopardy save the possibility they got wrapped up in the 'liquidity crisis'. It seemed to me there were banks outside of the country to re-secure the credit line if need be.

    I don't think $20's is unrealistic, and while I hope for a pop here, I don't expect one. We should get a good ride tomorrow but it's a long way up from here :)

    Pray for good news at the quarterly as that will feed the flame a bit, and the short interest ratio is only in the 4 day range. I'm not sure we'll see a short squeeze per se, but I'm pretty happy to hold this one for the months or maybe 1+ year to recover.

    After this ride, I'm tempted to just get out at my basis (roughly $20.00) but I do think this has the chance to go further. I'm not counting on the dividend coming back for at least six months, but that's just me :)

    Who knows, slow ride to 20's somewhere, then a pop when divi gets back in place in 18 months? Just guessing of course, but I do see the outside chance for 30s in the next 12 months.

    Current plan is to guestimate an exit in the mid 20s to low 30s in 6 to 18 months.

    Grats to longs, and here's to hoping I'm right :)


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