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Aircastle LTD Message Board

  • BDodd444 BDodd444 Jul 23, 2008 10:14 AM Flag

    Upward Resistance Level?

    Any of you techies have a number for where the resistance would be on the move up?

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    • Here's how I see it thus far -

      Technically there is resistance in the high 12's but generally where the bulk of the resistance is dollar-wise, there will start to be resistance in the dime to quarter leading up to that number. This is because everyone who wants out, sees the big seller and is willing to give a penny or three to get out before them.

      We have already broken through a resistance level - it was about a week ago. Given the rate at which resistance is falling, we could get through to 13 without too huge an issue. It's always hard to say.

      Technically we're above the 20 day moving average which is (for very few investors) a recovery signal. AYR has given that particular signal before, and fallen drastically immediately after. The next signal I see is we just crossed the 50 day moving average. This is far more meaningful for technical traders, but not as meaningful as the 100 or 200 day MA for the more conservative investors.

      The medium to high risk investors will take this stock to be in recovery, and no longer a bear.

      While watching AYR, I have seen a number of gravestone doji's. Those are signs that resistance overwhelms support and are usually death for the short term. It turns out those markers were correct.

      Today I'm seeing the opposite - a dragonfly doji. This is pretty much the golden sign for those looking for that pattern. In fact, I don't think I've seen a more stunning example of a dragonfly doji in recent memory... if I have at all. This shows firm support at today's opening price, and it never came below the opening price for the day. Some pattern-recognition types love this symbol.

      Knowing AYR is a lot different than the chartist's view, IMHO. Knowing this stock, I'd say what we really have here is a collective sigh of relief about the oil situation. As the bbl price of oil declines we will see movement across the transportation sector. Aircraft leasing in particular has been hammered, so even if the price of oil comes up modestly (key word there folks) the price of AYR should not sink back to previous levels. Here's why: it's not that the price of oil is higher/lower, it's the fact the market has proven, without doubt, that oil is not invincible and answers to the market like anything else.

      I do not expect resistance at high 12's to stand for very long. Support is now at two prices beneath us. This is a relief for many long-term longs. There were months at which zero support could be found. Having one level of support would have been wonderful. We have two now, though the price is low enough I'm expecting a third support level to appear at some point in the near future, given the momentum continues.

      Daily Parabolic SAR shows we've been in a buying trend since July 1, though it did not feel that way for a considerable time. This is probably because the market was awash with shares people wanted to dump, but were trying to get their nickel or dime greater than price. We did have one whipsaw (a statistical weakness in this type of analysis) during that time.

      Let's hope for continued support, and we'll see if we can get back to 16, 18, or even 22.

      Hold sentiment - only because I'm out of dry powder.

      Cheers all!


    • 1st small resistance around 12.83 but there is resistance at any level due to significant short positions

    • There was high volume just above 12.50, so I would expect some resistance at that level.,PGPODANRBR[PA!E20,2][D][F1!3!1.0!!2!5]&pref=G

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