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Aircastle LTD Message Board

  • humvee5000 humvee5000 Oct 24, 2008 8:14 AM Flag

    What is the story

    Is the market telling us that our particular companies are headed for trouble. If that is true - Dow and Dupont and hundreds of other companies that are gaining profit from the reduction in oil profits and their stocks are crashing are foretelling us trouble. Or us the hedge fund and growthfund redemptions causing all of it. Interesting that the better stocks are the ones being hit the hardest - because these are the stocks that these funds had.

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    • Humvee - you are absolutely correct with your observations. I think everyone in this stock has to try to concentrate on how high it will go and how quickly (compared to other stocks) after he dust settles because right now, the value of a stock means absolutely nothing. It's all about the financial position of the holders of the equities and absolutely nothing else - nothing! That is why fly is holding up very well. I don't know what the % of institutional ownership is in fly - do you know? Even if it's high, the buy back plan is keeping it so in a way, it is being held up artificially and either fly will come down or ayr will go up. imo, ayr will go up (just because fly has plenty more $ to buy back shares). The point is, at this juncture, if you're not on margin, it matters not what the stock will go down to but rather how high it will go when cash is eventually put back to work.

      This will recover a lot sooner than any retailer, manufacturer etc and the multiples in pps will be a lot higher. For me, it's just a question of whether I can stay liquid longer than the hedge funds......

      • 3 Replies to leeb6604
      • so basically after 150k posts
        and 3 years later, this stock
        has drifted endlessly and dine nothing!!!!!!

        ggggggggrrrreattttttttt stuff,,,,,

      • I generally agree with Leeb. The market is too busy screaming in terror to tell us anything. It's not rationally telling us much of anything. I think the earnings call will prove that out. As one that is looking to retire (like you, it's pushing out a touch) I'm not on margin anywhere and can just sit and wait for the dividend to pile up. Yes we may be in this for years, but we're in a fundamentally sound sector.

        I think the airlines that went BK, all did so when gas prices were high. For most people, moving from point A to point B is required nearly as much as food. Airplanes can be hit by vacationers, but I doubt they will be hit by much of anything else. Even LUV turned red this quarter for the first time in what... 17 years? That was fuel prices which are down right now. I'm very bullish on LUV and AYR each.

        So I'll throw out an anecdote. When I got Rockband2, this crisis was already on. Well, I couldn't find a copy. This is a $170+ game we're talking about.

        I think we're looking at margin settling and tremendous trading now happening in funds. I think most funds have gone into capital preservation mode and are holding a lot of cash right now.


      • As a newbie to this industry, I looked at FLY, but it scared me off with it's EPS numbers ... past and tomorrow. AYR showed better numbers with this, as related to the divy, so settled on AYR. Hope my feelings are correct.. )-;

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