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Transcept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TSPT) Message Board

  • igb3247 igb3247 Jul 13, 2011 5:13 PM Flag

    Will it sink further?

    What are your thoughts? I believe this will go down another 10-20% before Friday and then start working its way back up to 5.50-6.50 range - any thoughts?

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    • I highly doubt the FDA will reverse course and approve the drug after less than 48 hours. There will be a CRL and another safety study perhaps that will take 6 months for re-submission at least. There is no significant short position and so there won't be a short covering bounce. That being said, I don't see it sitting below cash levels ($4.50 or so) for long before a technical bounce to the mid $5s. So, a 20-25% bounce can be expected from the lows and then it becomes a long term play once again.

    • Probably start the climb tomorrow. Almost 25% of float already turned over today. 33% is owned by institutions and 37% by insiders - that's 70% total. Institutions sell right away. Insiders won't sell in the first couple days. That leaves the rest of us, and a whopping 4 million shares. I could see this going back to $6 by late next week.

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