I thank you, sir, for providing me with entertainment for the night...
A.) I got a perfect score on the ACT in English, and have had poetry published (no small feat for someone my age) I am going to just go ahead and say that my mastery of the english language need not be questioned. Mendacious = false, untrue...which is precisely how your far from lucid statements can be characterized, to be sure.
B.) Just because the stock has gone up a good deal in anticipation of the launch does not in any way, shape or form preclude the stock from continuing its upward trajectory. Why can that not be the case? Because you said so?
Everyone that has ever followed this stock, hear me now: m2bq has said that the stock price can only rise 50%, nothing more. So, liquidate your position now. You'll thank m2bq later.
I like market donkeys. They are so much fun!
For not wanting to come off like an ostentatious oaf you certainly did a magnificent impression.
Mendacious? Me? A Prevaricator? Lol
You sir should look up a word in excess of two syllables and be clear in it's usage before you attempt to use it in public. lol
You say the stock went up 50% recently because of the launch news. Well then, if that is the case, then the price is already in the stock. Your words, you eat em.
My God man, get a clue
"thus a poor or weak time period are factored in over time."
Just EL OH OL at this...Yup, that's exactly why we are in an officially bear market - b/c stock values fell after the market as a whole was affected by the credit contagion.By your reasoning, stocks should not have fallen, as a "weak time period" would have already been factored in.
"Yet is it not a virtual certainty the launch will be successful?"
The answer, in short, is that NO, it is not a certainty. Why did the stock fall every time there was a delay in the satellite getting in the air? Why is the stock up over 50% in the past months in anticipation of the launch, yet still nowhere near its highs?
And honestly, I don't want to be a jerk, but you are just completely off base with this...
"Because there is no uncertainty"
Just please, stop...right...now...the above comment has indeed shown that you just don't have a clue.
And pumping pleb? I Don't care to come off as a pretentious prick, so I won't go into my elite educational background; but regardless thanks for the insult, as I am more than willing to place confidence in my understanding of markets and value, and the markets as a pricing mechanism...
I am long a few hundred calls and hold stock that has gone up nearly 50% since I bought it. My calls right now are profitable, and looking to become supra so after this launch. I could not be happier with my position. I could get out now and be happier than a pig in sh*t with my profit, but my investing thesis in this stock has not changed and so there is no need to liquidate my position.
I have no care to get into a pissing match with you. You have shown yourself to be chockful of mendacity and prestigiditation, coupled with an inane inadequacy of fundamental market knowledge. So, I'll keep keeping on, watching my profitable position increase in value while you wallow in whatever it is you take solice in after this stock skyrockets.
The market changes many times over days, weeks months, let alone years. Analysts project revenues out over years and thus a poor or weak time period are factored in over time. The other part of your argument you rest your case on the statement "wall street hates uncertainty". Yet is it not a virtual certainty the launch will be successful? Of course it is. Because there is no uncertainty there can be nothing for wall street to hate. lol Everything is priced in my pumping pleb.
100% makes sense...
I could see precisely why people salivate over this...I mean, they have some debt to pay off from the satty, and have to pay to maintain their stations that process the data...
But that is but a pittance to the kind of revenue they will pull in...glad I could learn a new term today...the "operating leverage" in this company is sick, sick, sick...so much of that revenue is going to flow through to the bottom line, and the EPS booms upward and the stock price rockets up...
If Sunday goes well, the vertical assent of this company's value begins in earnest on monday...
The following comments would be altered by any change in the equity structure of the company - ie more common stock or any convertible debt or preferred stock - I used the term "operating leverage" to mean that any incremental increase in revenue will result in a larger percentage increase in the per share earnings due to what happens to their operating margins once fix cost are met - Example - A 100% increase in revenue might result in a 300% increase in per share earnings - Their margins are going to be very high - Hope this helps -
After reading your post another thought came to mind - Any short and by that I mean a true short not a hedged short position must be betting on a failed launch because the operating leverage inherent in this company's structure is the type and of the magnitude that growth oriented money managers salivate over -
I'm not a broker and yet, to me, this is readily apparent...challenging market conditions cause reactionary estimates. That is, when the market sux, analysts estimate lower...when some large and material happens to a company, then, and only then, is high time to raise those estimates..
Again, again again again - Wall Street HATES uncertainty. The value of this company lies under a large load of it. Not until a successful launch comes with the risk averse street people come out and play...
mbq, you are a market donk, but I do appreciate the discussion you bring
Just look at the carnage that has been taking place in the market with regards to missed estimates - Most of these poor bastards are shell shocked - Think what you will - The estimates will go up with a successful launch -