New debt deal adds 50c of additional debt expense per year. Look for GEOY to miss the analyst estimates. Also, company has never generated any cash. Put a 15x multiple on $1 of earnings and this is a $15 stock.
One problem for your logic: the "new expense" you see from the re-fi won't begin until the deal is done and that will be in October. The next earnings will cover the 3 months ending in September BEFORE your foreseen expense begins.
This will allow the analysts to make note of any new expense for quarters going forward. And they will note also what the extra $100 mil raised will be ticketed for.....obviously if used for a wise acquisition or a new satellite via government contract the added expense will be factored in and discounted as a burden.
You are right - they won't miss this quarter's numbers. I should have clarified that they are likely to miss the FY09 estimate, will likely lower the FY09 guidance, and FY10 estimates will come down. Look for a wave of quant fund selling/shorting as estimates come down.