Just took a SMALL initial position today, have my next buy order in at 5.50. I anticipate holding arry for no less than two years, so just putting my toe in the water at this point. With 3-4 phase 3 items in partnership, and one in house I figure it is no less than 3 years before any drug hits market.
I am aware they have done several secondaries to raise cash, but they appear to have enough cash for at least one year. Hoping they can avoid another secondary with a mile stone payment if/when it is due.
For a sub 10 speculative play they appear to have several descent shots at goal. Could not find potential sales numbers on these drugs if/when approved, but the milestone payments were stated at over 2 bill. I see this as a buy, hold, wait, and if the science pans out, arry could easily double in a year or two.
Any feed back welcome, I did look over their pipeline, 10Q etc., but I am SURE I likely missed a lot.
Tomorrow 10/31 earnings, and looking like Nov market could start out weak, I am giving it another week to see if 5.00 holds. Thinking a fair chance it hits about 4.90 could even hit 4.30 if the market tanks real hard by mid Nov. So far 5.20-5.30 has been the best range but if I am right, and buy now, I will be ticked off at my impatience. I will buy higher if I am wrong and this does not play out the way I think it might. ANYTHING under 6.00 is a no brainer, but mid 4's is my target buy price, we will see.
I will buy more over next month regardless.
I think this is a very good question I invested in ARRY as well and my sentiments what does concern me though are the molecues are they are potent molecues or just kinda the run of the mill. The pipeline is deep but this what I need to do more research on these molecues, I think what through up the red flad for me is the asthma molecue with okay results but they have not had any body run after that agent and I question the efficacy of these molecues. I am only in 300 shares and I want to go up to 1000 or 2000 but I need to have this question and also the answer to why is this company kinda always headed off with any momentum. I do like the response below about the rolayties due and other I have not made it that far with this stock but I will take a few hours this weekend to learn more. Any thought on efficacy I would be happy to hear.
hokie, I have a research project you will love. Look at isis pipeline, study isis. Spend no less than a weekend. Study arry, the same time. Two different molecules, but arry is about there matching isis in phase 3, identical partners. Shares =, loss eps =, big discrepancy market cap. I believe arry has technology as good or better, so have at it.
Hi Thom, Historically Arry has had a DIP in mid November creating a great entry point. Funds once dumped in Mid Nov, to early Dec, and bought back in late Dec, = the Santa Clause effect. They now DUMP late Oct, buy back late Nov. I hope history repeats.
Arry just announced one phase 3 this week, two MORE are anticipated by DEC, SOOO not so sure we get a DIP below 5, but I am hoping. The pipeline here as opk is a 2016 pipeline, so a 2-3 year hold, as I have stated in other posts here Arry likely gets bought out before these companies start paying the big royalties. Likely early 2015 but just a guess.
Stock is Heavily fund owned, not sure if that is good or bad. They could need a secondary by mid 2014 to raise operating cash. Good luck.
Potential owed money as stated in the most recent 10Q
We have received a total of $600.5 million in research funding and in up-front and milestone payments from our partnerships and collaborations from inception through June 30, 2013, including $143 million in initial payments from strategic agreements with Amgen, Genentech, Novartis and Oncothyreon that we entered into over the last four years. Our existing partnered programs entitle Array to receive a total of approximately $2.7 billion in additional milestone payments if we or our partners achieve the drug discovery, development and commercialization objectives detailed in those agreements. We also have the potential to earn royalties on any resulting product sales or share in the proceeds from development or commercialization arrangements resulting from 10 partnered programs.
They now need to develop more of their own pipeline. Once a couple partners bring drugs to market they will be set financially to do just that. This will take time but they have laid the ground work to be a significant player in the drug industry.
Here is why Arry will be taken out if either Genentech or Novartis realize their partnered drug will come to market. Arry market cap 677 million, royalties possible Genentec = 685m, Novartis = 408m, So a buy out at 2 X 677 ( current Cap Arry ) = 1.35 B revenue potentially owed by Genentec and Novartis = 1.09B. It's cheaper to buy Array than pay them.
The partnered drugs under the Chk-1 agreement include Genentech’s compound GDC-0425 and Array’s compound GDC-0575 (ARRY-575). Under the terms of the Chk-1 collaboration agreement, Genentech acquired a license to Array’s compound GDC-0575 and is responsible for all clinical development and commercialization activities of the partnered drugs. We received an up-front payment of $28 million during the first quarter of fiscal 2012 and are eligible to receive payments of up to $685 million based on the achievement of clinical and commercial milestones under this agreement. We will also receive up to double-digit royalties on sales of any drugs resulting from the Chk-1 agreement.
In consideration for the rights granted to Novartis under the agreement, we received $45 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010, which was comprised of an up-front fee and a milestone payment. In March 2011, we earned a $10 million milestone payment which was received in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011. In June 2013, we earned a $5 million milestone payment which we expect to receive in the first quarter of fiscal 2014. We are eligible to receive up toapproximately $408 million in additional aggregate milestone payments if all clinical, regulatory and commercial milestones specified in the Novartis agreement are achieved. Novartis will also pay us royalties on worldwide sales of any approved drugs. In addition, as long as we continue to co-develop products under the program, the royalty rate on U.S. sales is significantly higher than the rate on sales outside the U.S., as described below under Co-Development Arrangement.