Looking forward, I'd be concerned about the following:
1) Stability of missile defense funding - Orb currently working on GMD upgrade for Boeing and Targets work - remember that Obama told Russia during the next term he would have more flexiblility to cut some of the programs
2) Antares launch success
3) New satellite wins out of Dulles or Gilber
Would be interesting to see how Orbital is going to get more Antares engines out of Russia or Ukraine after they run out. Sea Launch was pretty much sunk because they could not get enough rocket engines from Russia - someone out there ask on the next ORB conferenc call - maybe Aerojet is making a new one for Orbital? I doubt it.
I think you did a nice job on spelling out the ORB issues ,Daj. I have been listening to the Conference Calls for the past few years to get a better understanding of the company, and I have. Quite frankly, I am losing faith in what is said there. Recall, that Thompson said they would beat SpaceX to the ISS. The Antares sits on the launch pad, as the Dragon returns science from the station. The launch biz is has had some success with the Minotor vehicle, but that has slowed down somewhat. They seem to have a pretty good supply of tested AJ26 engines, so that should not be a concern ov the near term. Thompson has said there is some strength in the MD line, but like you stated , red flags are up. The Satelitte division seems to be going well right now. They have made 3 deliveries in the past few months and one is up and doing well, while another is going up today. The jury is still out......
Yea, earlier this year ORB was my biggest holding. I bought alot when the stock tanked for no reason during the summer months and then sold into the fall months.
Long term, they're still the only game in town for small/medium launch capability, but ULA is developing a dual launch capability on Atlas V or Delta IV (two satellites on one vehicle). We'll see where this all plays out. We might be smelling roses if Antares gets off a successful launch early next year.