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Orbital Sciences Corp. Message Board

  • wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Apr 9, 2013 9:26 AM Flag

    Puzzled as I am a long term holder

    Is it time to back off and take profits prior to the 17th or hold on through whatever happens. I just do not know if the price reflects expected success and a failure would really hammer the share price. Any thoughts from you doc or you clamdigger?

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    • Amigos, I share your pain on this stock but I confess that I dipped my toe back in two weeks ago when it crossed $16 and held there. I didn't want to miss the "breakout" if in fact there was good news on the test flight. (Beware of my proven contrary impulses.) Maybe I'll start wearing my good luck fishing hat indoors for awhile. Or my tinfoil one.

      Long run, I am still very impressed with the innovations and rapid work from SpaceX including the annoying Siemens TV ad showing the launch and capture. Musk is good.

      PS: Where does ORB make the Antares? do they put it together in VA? Or do they make it in Chandler and ship it to Wallops? Logistics? Just curious. Ditto the Cygnus capsule.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to clamdigger_97
      • Well there you have it,Tom. Two of the amigos are holding through the launch. A clear sell now signal. :).
        Clam...good to hear from you. I saw a map once on the Antares and Cyngus which showed where all the parts came from. I think only the final mating of the Antares and Cyngus is done at Wallops.Not sure Chandler facility comes into play at all.
        I agree that SpaceX and Musk have been impressive thus far, however, flight 1 had an engine fail and flight 2 had an issue with the capsule. this cannot be easy.

    • Tom...
      I share your pain,in more ways than one,as I too have been a long term holder . Frankly, that has gotten us nowhere these past 20 years. As I stated yesterday, I think ORB 's stock price has more downside risk than upside risk here in the short run. I am not sure there is a whole bunch of trading positions in this stock to make it move too much to the upside and the funds that are long the stock might sell on a knee jerk reaction to bad news. My best guess is .75 of upside on day one if all goes well, and at least twice that should there be an anomaly of some sort. The thing is , that neither success nor failure on the 17th is really critical in the short run. The naysayers will still be out there on ORB. This is merely a risk reduction flight. Can the rocket launch the load? Will the fairings open without issue? Remember ,there is still the issue of the Cyngus being able to dock with the ISS on the COTS demo a few months from now even if we are perfect next week. This is why the upside is limited. The downside is loss of confidence ,and we saw what happened in 09 and then again in 11 , only to be saved by a big defense contract ,which held the stock up for a few days. I am holding through the launch, though I should probably buy some puts. I am of the belief that the medium term holds promise of 6 or 7 bucks of upside before year end. The positive spin is that all goes well ,new contracts are won for the Antares, conservative past revenues are revised later in the year , cash flow returns to a real positive and maybe a buyback next spring. The other would be a buyout at 1.2 times revenue. Good luck Tom on whatever you decide.

      Sentiment: Buy