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MBIA Inc. Message Board

  • nilsdegraaf nilsdegraaf Jan 20, 2010 3:59 PM Flag

    What I learned today

    Wells Fargo:
    1) Non performing real estate loans:
    * Commercial real estate: 3,8% of loan balance (+ 50% qoq)
    * Residential: 4.4% (+25%)
    - increase to a large extent due to Pick a pay (53%) and a longer work out period

    2) Charge offs:
    * Commercial real estate: 1.3% (+ 65% qoq)
    * Residential first lien: 1.74% (+7%)
    * Residential junior lien: 5.09% (+5%)

    Pick a pay roll rates are sligtly lower. New delinquencies have declined back to early 2008 levels. (Pick a pay might not be relevant for MBIA, but nevertheless the trend is relevant)

    Credit spreads
    Unrealized securities gains were $5.6 billion
    consisting of $3.3 billion in unrealized gains in the agency mortgage-backed securities portfolio and $2.3 billion on
    spread-related fixed-income securities and equity investments


    Bank Of America

    Residential Mortgages
    30 day+ residential mortgage delinquencies: 4% (flat qoq)
    30 day+ Home equity delinquencies: 1.47% (+2%)
    Home equity net charge offs: 4.1% (-20%)
    (presentatiion page 25)

    (the levels of 1.47% and 4.1% seem rather low to me?)

    Commercial mortgages (non homebuilder)
    Losses slightly down
    Reserves up ca. 15%


    What I learned?

    MBIA 4q results will show:
    * positive marks on derivatives portfolio ($1bln?)
    * No or small extra reserves on residential mortgage book
    * Maybe reserves on commercial real estate book

    And I knew already:
    * positive tax benefit ($?)
    * Decline in reserves re credit suisse mortgage portfolio ($400mln?)

    And what I don't know:
    * widening/ tightening of MBIA credit spread over the quarter?

    Conclusion
    Strong 4th quarter profit MBIA?

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