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MBIA Inc. Message Board

  • tscottrade tscottrade Feb 17, 2010 4:45 PM Flag

    FREAKING MATH HELPS

    IF YOU WANT TO DO A QUICK MATH TO CALCULATE BV.

    HERE IT IS GURLS:

    LETS CHECK THE FREAKING NUMBERS AS OF 09/30/2009.


    Cash And Cash Equivalents = 1,645.45
    Short Term Investments = --------
    Net Receivables = --------
    Total Receivables, Net = 2,410.72
    Prepaid Expenses = 367.11

    Property/Equipment, Total - Gross = 232.80
    Goodwill, Net = 76.94
    Long Term Investments = 18,642.40
    Other Long Term Assets, Total = 1,309.42



    NOW..

    Accounts Payable = --------
    Accrued Expenses = --------
    Notes Payable/Short Term Debt = 4,988.76
    Other Current liabilities, Total= 391.95
    Total Long Term Debt = 6,650.82

    Minority Interest = 16.78
    Other Liabilities, Total = 6,121.15



    FOR QUICK AND DIRTY MATH LETS IGNORE PREPARED EXPENSES, OTHER LONG TERM ASSETS. OBVIOUSLY PROPERTY AND GOODWILL NOT BE ADDED TO GO CONSERVATIVE.



    FREAKING VALUATION OF A FREAKING COMPANY =

    2,410.72 + 18,642.40 - 4,988.76 - 391.95 - 6,650.82 - 16.78 - 6,121.15 = $2,883.66

    NOW... THATS THE FREAKING CALCULATION FOR FREAKING SHAREHOLDER'S FREAKING EQUITY.


    Total Common Shares Outstanding = 207.95


    FREAKING BOOK VALUE = $2,883.66/ 207.95 = $13.87

    PRICE (AS OF CLOSE TODAY)= $5.11

    FREAKING PRICE TO FREAKING BOOK = 0.368

    ANYTHING BELOW 0.5 IS FREAKING BUY.

    ALL FREAKING NUMBERS ARE IN MILLIONS.

    REFERENCE: FREAKING GOOGLE FINANCE (MBIA BALANCE SHEET)


    TS=NO FREAKING BS>

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    • Excellent points, but doesn't the value go beyond book value? I would imagine that MBI could easily argue that it is in all parties interests to enable it to earn new premiums to generate incremental profits to build more capital... Thus the real value can easily be a multiple of book value?

      • 1 Reply to zzdan2003
      • The problem is that the market for muni insurance has cratered, its future form (govt. vs. private vs. nonexistent) is in serious doubt, and the level of capital required if there is a future market is also in doubt.

        While it is true that there is some business being written, it is not clear whether this should be interpreted as a legacy of a system in transition or evidence of a possible future turnaround. I think its just a dwindling legacy of a failed system.

        The whole concept that municipal insurance is value-added is doubtful. It's previous success was due to a corrupt rating system along with dubious capital requirements. The system is no longer tolerant of the ratings corruption and high capital requirements drive down returns...

        But if you have a charitable (foolish) view of MBIA's situation, you do have a good point about the franchise value:

        1. If the phony ratings system could be resurrected and phony capital requirements ratified there would be significant franchise value in MBIA's muni business which is not reflected in book value. One of the arguments of the stranded stripco policyholders is that the restructuring did not account for the value of the MBIA municipal bond insurance business...

        But, as far as being in the interests of all parties involved, you need to understand that MBIA had the option of making NPFG a subsidiary of MBIA insurance. In not doing so, it signaled that it understood the dire financial situation it was leaving its insurance sub.

        Also, its difficult to theorize the impacts on all parties without understanding how much capital would need to be put into NPFG to make it viable and what the cost of that capital would be.

        Anyway, when you are dealing with repeat fraudsters like MBIA, it would probably be more fair to auction NPFG off and place the proceeds in MBIA insurance sub. In doing so you would capture any value the insurance business has in the sale price at auction without subjecting the various stakeholders to the possibility/likelihood of any further fraud by MBIA management.

        One Man's Opinion. jbd.

    • I have explained numerous times before that I think GAAP liabilities are about $4B too low for second lien deals, and about $1.5B too low for CDOs. Add another $500M-$1B for an Australian toll road and guarantees to asset management subsidiaries, and you've got $6B to $6.5B that can be subtracted from GAAP equity.

      If CRE goes bad, this could easily add another $5B-$10B. If a few percent of munis default, add another $5B+. It would not surprise me if MBIA were ultimately found to be insolvent by over $10B.

    • If there were a way to short Chinese real estate (particularly urban real estate, especially Shanghai), it would be fantastic. Other than that, I am really not sure.

      Some options might include shorting certain commodities as a proxy (I believe that Chanos is doing this) or shorting Chinese stock indices (I have done this in the past and may do it again). I don't have any great ideas. Are you considering any promising strategies?

    • Gotta love this:
      (AP On Chinese banking)

      "...On personal lending, the regulation says that borrowers may not obtain loans if they do not specify what the money is to be used for.

      Chinese leaders have warned banks repeatedly to keep lending stable in 2010 and avoid financing unneeded real estate and industrial projects due to fears they might fuel inflation or leave banks burdened with bad debts if poorly planned projects fail...."

      SLC2, what can short there, any idea?

    • Thanks, and good luck to you, too.

    • What reserves are you talking about? If you net out reinsurance $53M and “Insurance loss recoverable” from loss reserves you get a net asset of $0.94B on $10B+ of toxic RMBS. You cannot make this stuff up.

    • H_azam i sure agree with you.

      he just have bashings for mbia and for us long but not the facts to attack.

      try better shot next time, gurl.

      ts=no bs>

    • Note that only Ambac decreased reserves based on anticipated put backs. They did this based on statistical analysis of the affected portfolios.
      So far, MBIA has not gone this route. However, if they do you can easily expect, wild guess, another 1 billion write ups (including the 400m re CS).

    • So you can't even provide one example of a clear breach?

    • Can you cite even one specific example of a clear-cut breach? There are definitely clear-cut breaches outlined in some of the complaints, but if you cannot identify even one, you obviously have some homework to do.

    • View More Messages
 
MBI
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