Hi Guys, I wanted to get your honest opinion about what the 4Q result outcome might be for MBIA. What are the analysts estimates? I would like to take a long position and need your thoughts in addition to my dd.
mbi has been expected a revenue of $236.96 million that is compared with a negative revenue of $1.59 billion ayear ago.
if it is true, mbi rally on monday.
To answer the qusetions asked I got mbi
-.75 compared to est of -1.11. With book value going from 13.00 to 17.00.
MBI will go to 8.00 per share. Then simmer down to 7.00. At least that's my bet. O yes it's a bet....
Also in the future I have banks returning over 2.0-4.0 billion in frudeulant claims payed out from MBI.
My guess????? But I have big balls. Because you need them to bet on this. Moneys down waiting on the roll of the dice.
That was not a tax deduction, it was a potential tax credit to offset Net Operating Losses. There was $500M in capacity (potential) but MBIA would have to have equivalent NOL to utilize it. Hard to see how "positive" earnings could result in $500M in Net Operating Loss.
Do your own analysis:
Assured guarantee posted slightly negative MBS losses and positive MtM on credit defaults swaps.
Add some increase in MBIA's own credit spread and it is pretty clear that MBIA's GAAP earnings will be positive.