Thu, Jul 31, 2014, 3:08 AM EDT - U.S. Markets open in 6 hrs 22 mins

Recent

% | $
Click the to save as a favorite.

MBIA Inc. Message Board

  • twinbrookfarms twinbrookfarms May 24, 2010 4:01 PM Flag

    Upgrades

    Shouldn't the S&P upgrade have helped MBI.. indexes were only down modestly while MBI was down almost 6%

    How much more good news can you stand?

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) May 24, 2010--Total delinquencies among U.S. home equity line of credit (HELOC) residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions, as a percent of the current pool balances, decreased in April for transactions originally rated in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' recent "U.S. HELOC RMBS Performance Update" report.

      As of the April 2010 distribution date, total delinquencies
      were 9.48%, 14.21%, 17.23%, and 9.08% of the current aggregate pool balances for the 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 vintages, respectively.

      Serious delinquencies (90-plus days, foreclosures, and real estate owned {REOs}) were also down as of the April distribution date among each of these vintages. The rate of change in both total and serious delinquencies appears
      to have leveled off over the past three months. As of the April 2010 reporting period, serious delinquencies for the 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 vintages were
      approximately 6.17%, 9.73%, 12.39%, and 5.56% of the current aggregate pool balances, respectively.


      Although cumulative losses continued to rise for each of these vintages as of the April distribution date, the rate of growth appears to have slowed over the prior three months. As of the April 2010 reporting period, cumulative
      losses for the 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 transactions were approximately 3.14%, 10.19%, 21.91%, and 26.99% of the original aggregate pool balances,
      respectively. Compared with the prior distribution date, cumulative losses increased approximately 5.37%, 2.93%, 4.18%, and 2.27% for these vintages, respectively.

      • 2 Replies to nilsdegraaf
      • MBIA’s HELOC deals from 2005-2007 have generated more losses and delinquency rates are a higher (by around a third on average) than the universe evaluated by S&P. Some of this might have been chalked up to seasonality, but delinquencies have continued to decrease for the May reports as well. The delinquency trends for CES are similar, but MBIA’s 2005-2007 CES deals have experienced lower losses and delinquencies are lower (by around 40%) than S&P’s universe.

        It is difficult to know whether performance over the past few months was boosted by loan modifications that might fail or if it is genuine.

        The problem that around $1.1B in loans in MBIA’s CES and HELOC deals are delinquent as of the May reports, and MBIA has paid around $250M in claims in April and May. If March-May improvement is here to stay, MBIA might only need to pay $1.5B, maybe even a little less, on these deals. If not, the number could grow much larger.

        On top of this, MBIA is looking at $4B+ of CDO payments, and lots of other problems, including CRE and affiliate guarantees.

        To deal with all of this nasty stuff, MBIA Corp’s net loss reserves were $250M and Policyholders Surplus (sort of like shareholders equity, but based on Statutory Accounting rather than GAAP) was $2B as of the end of the first quarter.

      • Note that 2006 and 2007 vintages are most relevant for MBIA:

        NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) May 24, 2010--Overall performance of U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions backed by closed-end second-lien collateral was mixed as of the April 2010 distribution
        date, according to Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' recent "U.S. Closed-End Second-Lien RMBS Performance Update" report.

        Total delinquencies were 9.84%, 13.15%, 17.99%, and 16.65% of the current aggregate pool balances in April for the 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 vintages, respectively. Compared with the March 2010 distribution date, these figures
        were up roughly 1.65% for the 2004 vintage and down roughly 2.23%, 5.71%, and 5.51% for the 2005, 2006, and 2007 vintages, respectively.

        As of the most recent reporting period, serious delinquencies were approximately 5.97%, 7.80%, 12.77%, and 11.54% of the current pool balances for the 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 vintages, respectively. Compared with the
        prior distribution date, serious delinquencies increased approximately 7.37% for the 2004 vintage and decreased roughly 0.64%, 4.70%, and 4.07% for the 2005, 2006, and 2007 vintages, respectively.

        Cumulative losses have steadily increased for the 2004-2007 vintages over the past six months, but the rate of increases slowed in April compared with the prior period. As of the April 2010 distribution date, cumulative losses totaled 4.95%, 21.16%, 35.49%, and 38.17% of the original aggregate pool balances for the 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 vintages, respectively. Compared with the previous distribution date, cumulative losses were up approximately 0.41% for 2004, 1.00% for 2005, 1.75% for 2006, and 2.11% for 2007.

 
MBI
9.77-0.19(-1.91%)Jul 30 4:00 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.