MBIA Inc. Message Board

  • h_azarm h_azarm Nov 12, 2010 10:59 PM Flag

    Materia or Not!

     

    I just read the article on Seeking Alpha on the Banks best defense on breach of Warr & Reps and it made me laugh....

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/236569-mbia-gaining-ground-on-representations-and-warranties?source=yahoo

    While it may be true that certain mortgages did not or will not fail due to non-compliance with Warr & Reps, but from an Insurer's perspective, this a is lame excuse at best as they would NOT have Insured the non-compliant mortgages as they certainly have enhanced the risk associated with the CDOs and if they did, they would have asked for larger premiums....

    So the Banks argument resembles an alcoholic-heavy smoker who fails to disclose his habits and brings a clean bill of health from his cousin who is a Doctor, in this case AAA rating by the CRAs, and buys "Life Insurance" at a low premium and gets killed in a car accident while he was neither drunk nor smoking....

    Guess what, the Insurance company would refuse to pay for that policy because the Buyer/Holder of the policy knowingly entered into a contract by misleading his counterparty and in Common Law that constitutes fraud/doing business in bad faith and/or gross negligence and that such contracts are NOT enforceable (clear grounds for criminal charges by the AGs)....

    The key point here is, as Jay Brown has said, if MBIA was made awre of the nature of these non-compliant mortgages, they would have asked for higher premiums and more strict limitation/out clauses or refuse to wrap them....

    So the Banks want it both ways, Insure our crap but don't charge premiums that match the real/potential risks involved.

    The Judges should see through the holes in this argument and make them pay.

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    • Since there are so many loans in the pools, 400k plus, there are several good statistical tests available to check which R&W breaches, or combinations, have resulted in significantly higher losses.


      Let's try an easy to understand statistical approach:

      Material breaches should read like: "breaches that have significantly increased losses".

      Now, how to approach Bofa's claim that there are not that many material breaches?

      Step 1a is to describe Bofa's objective criteria how to define a material breach.

      Step 1b is to describe MBIA's objective criteria how to define a material breach.

      Step 2 is to apply these criteria to the 400k plus loans.


      Now the dispute is only on those loans where there is a difference.

      Step 3 is to calculate the losses in the following pools of mortgages:

      - the clean pool according to Bofa;
      - the disputed pool, i.e. ineligible according to MBIA, eligible according to Bofa.

      If the losses in the disputed pool are significantly higher than in the clean pool then Bofa has a problem. Then Bofa has to redefine its criteria until the two pools have equal loss severities.



      I am not saying this the right legal approach as you can argue that breaches have to be resolved according to the contract anyway. But that is another question.

 
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