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MBIA Inc. Message Board

  • mishka369 Aug 6, 2013 2:24 PM Flag

    MBI Aug 17 '13 $14 Call

    Last Price Today's Change Bid (Size) Ask (Size) Day's Range Volume Trade
    0.39 -0.02 (-4.88%) 0.39 x559 0.43 x411 0.33 - 0.44 1,375


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    • Hi all. My first post here. I just got involved with MBI :-) ... a stock filter led me to this stock.

      Purely on the technical side, the daily Bollinger Bands have never been this compressed (relative to the stock price). Ever. The weekly/monthly BBands are also very compressed. Furthermore, volume has been near historic lows since May. Price, volume, and volatility all go through cycles, and I believe the quiet part of the cycle will soon give way to violent sharp moves on high volume.

      I see many on this board anticipating a positive earnings surprise. I hope that happens. However (in my experience), message board expectations typically don't happen on time, i.e. you may be disappointed first before seeing your forecast come true later. Pundits and news media will blow hard in one direction before the market makers move the stock the other way, run your stops, etc.

      It is very odd, that a few days before earnings, MBI option premiums are very low, despite the huge option blocks that are being bought. I suspect some large players know something that we retail investors don't. In a highly compressed scenario like this one, the stock will move a long way in the next few weeks.

      Which way is the question ! Which led me to get an options straddle on MBI in case the markets react adversely to this earnings release.

      Looking at the technicals, upside resistance is near $16, $17, then $19. If MBI battles through that, it's blue sky until $26. Your thoughts welcome. Good luck to all.

      - Gorilla.

      Sentiment: Buy

5.76+0.18(+3.23%)Jul 7 4:02 PMEDT