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  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Feb 14, 2013 6:25 PM Flag

    Bankruptcy seems like a good possibility...

    ...even considering they have a so-so balance sheet.

    I shorted in the extreme low $1's today. Considering we were trading at $1.50, short term upside seems limited to maybe $1.15-1.25. And downside could be effectively zero. I like the risk reward of shorting here.

    They are twisting in the wind. And the operating history is such a joke here, that the danger is that the financiers just want to "walk away," and cash out their chips in a liquidation. Then again, they may be too afraid to live through a "debtor in possession" situation, for fear management will ruin even more value.

    It's, in short, a Catch 22. They could find a replacement financier...but it's pretty clear the operating losses and write downs are going to be rather large. And it's not like anyone would expect a turnaround for the better, from here on it.

    Objectively, this thing needs to be put out of its misery. A buyout would be a great relief for longs...but I'm willing to bet that that is not going to happen. (I could, of course, be wrong.)

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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