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Clayton Homes, Inc. (CMH) Message Board

  • nmoil nmoil Jul 22, 2000 7:25 AM Flag

    MH Grave yard??

    Took a 500 mile drive yesterday, Va to NY.
    Somewhere on I81 in N Va. I noticed a field full of MH,
    double wides, sort of a mess. Stuff looked like it had
    just been dragged in there, no sign it had ever been a
    dealership. New product with the plastic up, some of the
    plastic torn away and the interiors exposed.

    The
    product was all OH. Va Jim used to talk about a OH
    collapse as a probable drag, at least momentary, on all MH
    shares. Read some posts by him lately noting that banks
    have secured interest in OH requiring them to
    foreclose if OH misses any payments (or they loose their
    security rights)

    500 mile drive, saw ONE MH in
    transit. I don't know typical MH traffic on I81, a few
    years back 500 miles on I25 was good for 10-20 MH
    sitings.

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    • <I am beginning to wonder the same. I have
      held numerous stocks for long periods, watching them
      graually rise, and then...ka boom...all lost in one
      day.>

      I'm coming to the same conclusion.
      This has always
      been true for cyclicals, but seems to be now true for
      more mainline like MSFT, etc.

      The key would be
      to make sure up front that you keep your core
      position come thick or thin. And that you buy back your
      position when the stock is a better buy. Note: This could
      be even higher than what you sold some at IF the
      conditions changed to make the stock a better buy than what
      it was.

      We've done this with some stocks,
      most recently with APCC.

      Re: OT posts on this
      board. While mostly I lurk, I do like the intelligent
      remarks made here, w/o having to wade thru the garbage
      posts on most boards. So, as long as it concerns higher
      quality cyclicals like CMH or market philosophy 'ideas',
      I'd rather see that than have the board dissolve into
      a "CMH to $20 by Xmas" because of nothing better to
      say.

      Mat

    • I think it is fine to post OT, as long as it is clearly labelled, so others can skip
      over it.

      The sources I like for semi-equip are the Silicon Investor threads. The
      KLIC thread isn't very active, but the AMAT thread is, and there are several threads
      devoted to the overall industry ("buy semi-equips when blood is running in the streets"
      thread, for instance.) Posters there frequently post URLs to other good sites, such as
      articles, charts (Gottfried maintains a site with lots of good charts).

      I have not been
      active on those threads since I sold all my semi-equip holdings in January. If I did anything
      now, it would be to short them. I won't go long till the next cyclical low, probably a
      couple of years from
      now.

      http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/subject.gsp?subjectid=588

      http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/subject.gsp?subjectid=5416

      http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=14084078

      Good luck, and good reading.

    • in jm's style my guess is it'll end the year at
      $9, plus or minus $2. Same thing for 2001, except
      maybe slide it up to $10 +/- $2. I don't doubt there
      will be a turn eventually, but I can also imagine the
      buyers we need for a solid move staying
      elsewhere.

      Never bought any brk, great day for insurance it looks
      like. If insurance can get hot maybe CMH's day isn't
      too far off.

      NM

    • Thank you very much for your well laid out post.
      It was very helpful.

      I do not think that, at
      this time, I am ready to do the puts and calls thing,
      but there may come a time.

      As for the semis,
      with a little more homework, I may take a shot. Their
      high volatility does not completely jive with my
      investment orientation, but they may be worth a shot for a
      small portion of the port.

      Great day for BRK.
      Did you ever buy any?

      Could CMH have seen its
      lows?

      ---frat

    • start at their Yahoo board, I've seen some good
      posts there, also lots of clutter. They make
      wirebonders, machines that make the connections inside chips
      and in electronic assemblies. I don't think
      technology is changing in any way to obsolete klic. jmsnyder
      has made sound comments on this board (cmh) about the
      semiconductor business. So far it's an ongoing
      supply-demand-too much supply-weaker demand cycle that drives the
      stocks up and down. If markets were truly efficient
      these things would average out eventually, but I think
      since markets are made up of people with excesses in
      both optimism and pessimism the cycles go on. For me,
      the main thing with klic (and other semis like helx,
      lrcx, amat, klac) is to convince yourself these are
      important cyclical companies supporting marketable
      technology. Then you can buy in after the big drops, buy at
      the crises (asian flu) with confidence they will
      recover. The world seldom ends and it will probably use
      more electronics in 5-10 years than today. On my
      microcaps like frd and wtt I could never buy after a big
      dump, that alone is probably a good reason to avoid
      them.

      I bet you know the basics on options: buy a 100 sh
      of klic, then you can sell 1 "covered call"
      contract, where you guarantee to some faceless soul you'll
      sell him those 100 shares at a fixed "strike price",
      thru a certain "expiration date", regardless of the
      market price. I accept the conventional wisdom, that
      buying options is a suckers bet. But who's on the other
      side of the bet? Yesterday it was me at klic, I won a
      $2 premium per share for guaranteeing I would sell
      1000 shares of klic for $22.5/sh up through Aug 19.
      After the dump yesterday the market saw that
      contractual right as essentially worthless and I was able to
      buy back the calls I had sold on Tues for $2 ea for
      25 cents each. (I also could have waited 16 days and
      they probably would have expired worthless, but if you
      can close an option position on a volatile stock with
      an 8X gain in 24 hours, do it everytime.

      I
      think www.cboe has lots of info (not sure if it's .org
      or .com).

      What really got me going on options
      (and I don't do much of this) was opening an
      ameritrade account. Their windows/menus walk you right into
      options stuff (smart marketing), makes it almost too
      easy.

      I think the ticket on options is to be in something
      both hot and sound, something where irrational
      optimism drives up the call premiums beyond reason. klic
      seems to fit the bill.

      Regards, NM

    • Once a month the Elkhart Truth publishes this information ,but I do not Know if they have a web site and if they would put this info on it.

    • Sooner or later the excess inventory will have to
      shrink or a lot of smaller companies will go out of
      business. Clayton should then resume profit growth. How
      soon will this happen is anyone's guess, but it will
      happen.

      Have been buying Jones Apparel JNY mostly because of
      warren buffet, but also earnings are growing
      nicely.

      V46

      ps any help on where to find trend of shipment of
      homes????????

    • Thanks for the tip on KLIC. I did not buy as I do
      not understnad the industry too well. Are you aware
      of any sources that can help me gain an
      understanding the semi sector? Also, would appreciate it if you
      could point me towards something that would help with
      puts and calls. Understand what they are, but never
      have used them.

      I am basically pretty low
      tech.

      frat

    • KLIC doesn't worry me, I've really had fun with
      it the past two days. Selling/buying the calls from
      $2 to .25 took the sting out of the dump, with the
      equal buys at 22.5 and 14 I'm a point below breakeven
      now. I'm confident this will end up a double or better
      within 3-24 months, I'll buy it into the single digits
      if possible.

      HELX is looking very tempting,
      they make the high vaccuum hardware which is necessary
      for many high tech processes. I'm very tempted to
      move more from oil to semiconductors, but not quite
      yet.

    • <<I'm really starting to wonder if the "buy
      and hold forever" is as good a strategy as it once
      was.>>

      I am beginning to wonder the same. I have held
      numerous stocks for long periods, watching them graually
      rise, and then...ka boom...all lost in one
      day.

      I think that the solution is to "trade" around a
      core position. This is a strategy that I have
      gradually begun to develop. Not sure if it is the best way
      to fly, but I have had some success. Basically,
      jimsnyder is using it with many of his holdings.


      frat

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