Took a 500 mile drive yesterday, Va to NY.
Somewhere on I81 in N Va. I noticed a field full of MH,
double wides, sort of a mess. Stuff looked like it had
just been dragged in there, no sign it had ever been a
dealership. New product with the plastic up, some of the
plastic torn away and the interiors exposed.
product was all OH. Va Jim used to talk about a OH
collapse as a probable drag, at least momentary, on all MH
shares. Read some posts by him lately noting that banks
have secured interest in OH requiring them to
foreclose if OH misses any payments (or they loose their
500 mile drive, saw ONE MH in
transit. I don't know typical MH traffic on I81, a few
years back 500 miles on I25 was good for 10-20 MH
<I am beginning to wonder the same. I have
held numerous stocks for long periods, watching them
graually rise, and then...ka boom...all lost in one
I'm coming to the same conclusion.
This has always
been true for cyclicals, but seems to be now true for
more mainline like MSFT, etc.
The key would be
to make sure up front that you keep your core
position come thick or thin. And that you buy back your
position when the stock is a better buy. Note: This could
be even higher than what you sold some at IF the
conditions changed to make the stock a better buy than what
We've done this with some stocks,
most recently with APCC.
Re: OT posts on this
board. While mostly I lurk, I do like the intelligent
remarks made here, w/o having to wade thru the garbage
posts on most boards. So, as long as it concerns higher
quality cyclicals like CMH or market philosophy 'ideas',
I'd rather see that than have the board dissolve into
a "CMH to $20 by Xmas" because of nothing better to
I think it is fine to post OT, as long as it is clearly labelled, so others can skip
The sources I like for semi-equip are the Silicon Investor threads. The
KLIC thread isn't very active, but the AMAT thread is, and there are several threads
devoted to the overall industry ("buy semi-equips when blood is running in the streets"
thread, for instance.) Posters there frequently post URLs to other good sites, such as
articles, charts (Gottfried maintains a site with lots of good charts).
I have not been
active on those threads since I sold all my semi-equip holdings in January. If I did anything
now, it would be to short them. I won't go long till the next cyclical low, probably a
couple of years from
Good luck, and good reading.
in jm's style my guess is it'll end the year at
$9, plus or minus $2. Same thing for 2001, except
maybe slide it up to $10 +/- $2. I don't doubt there
will be a turn eventually, but I can also imagine the
buyers we need for a solid move staying
Never bought any brk, great day for insurance it looks
like. If insurance can get hot maybe CMH's day isn't
too far off.
Thank you very much for your well laid out post.
It was very helpful.
I do not think that, at
this time, I am ready to do the puts and calls thing,
but there may come a time.
As for the semis,
with a little more homework, I may take a shot. Their
high volatility does not completely jive with my
investment orientation, but they may be worth a shot for a
small portion of the port.
Great day for BRK.
Did you ever buy any?
Could CMH have seen its
start at their Yahoo board, I've seen some good
posts there, also lots of clutter. They make
wirebonders, machines that make the connections inside chips
and in electronic assemblies. I don't think
technology is changing in any way to obsolete klic. jmsnyder
has made sound comments on this board (cmh) about the
semiconductor business. So far it's an ongoing
supply-demand-too much supply-weaker demand cycle that drives the
stocks up and down. If markets were truly efficient
these things would average out eventually, but I think
since markets are made up of people with excesses in
both optimism and pessimism the cycles go on. For me,
the main thing with klic (and other semis like helx,
lrcx, amat, klac) is to convince yourself these are
important cyclical companies supporting marketable
technology. Then you can buy in after the big drops, buy at
the crises (asian flu) with confidence they will
recover. The world seldom ends and it will probably use
more electronics in 5-10 years than today. On my
microcaps like frd and wtt I could never buy after a big
dump, that alone is probably a good reason to avoid
I bet you know the basics on options: buy a 100 sh
of klic, then you can sell 1 "covered call"
contract, where you guarantee to some faceless soul you'll
sell him those 100 shares at a fixed "strike price",
thru a certain "expiration date", regardless of the
market price. I accept the conventional wisdom, that
buying options is a suckers bet. But who's on the other
side of the bet? Yesterday it was me at klic, I won a
$2 premium per share for guaranteeing I would sell
1000 shares of klic for $22.5/sh up through Aug 19.
After the dump yesterday the market saw that
contractual right as essentially worthless and I was able to
buy back the calls I had sold on Tues for $2 ea for
25 cents each. (I also could have waited 16 days and
they probably would have expired worthless, but if you
can close an option position on a volatile stock with
an 8X gain in 24 hours, do it everytime.
think www.cboe has lots of info (not sure if it's .org
What really got me going on options
(and I don't do much of this) was opening an
ameritrade account. Their windows/menus walk you right into
options stuff (smart marketing), makes it almost too
I think the ticket on options is to be in something
both hot and sound, something where irrational
optimism drives up the call premiums beyond reason. klic
seems to fit the bill.
Sooner or later the excess inventory will have to
shrink or a lot of smaller companies will go out of
business. Clayton should then resume profit growth. How
soon will this happen is anyone's guess, but it will
Have been buying Jones Apparel JNY mostly because of
warren buffet, but also earnings are growing
ps any help on where to find trend of shipment of
Thanks for the tip on KLIC. I did not buy as I do
not understnad the industry too well. Are you aware
of any sources that can help me gain an
understanding the semi sector? Also, would appreciate it if you
could point me towards something that would help with
puts and calls. Understand what they are, but never
have used them.
I am basically pretty low
KLIC doesn't worry me, I've really had fun with
it the past two days. Selling/buying the calls from
$2 to .25 took the sting out of the dump, with the
equal buys at 22.5 and 14 I'm a point below breakeven
now. I'm confident this will end up a double or better
within 3-24 months, I'll buy it into the single digits
HELX is looking very tempting,
they make the high vaccuum hardware which is necessary
for many high tech processes. I'm very tempted to
move more from oil to semiconductors, but not quite
<<I'm really starting to wonder if the "buy
and hold forever" is as good a strategy as it once
I am beginning to wonder the same. I have held
numerous stocks for long periods, watching them graually
rise, and then...ka boom...all lost in one
I think that the solution is to "trade" around a
core position. This is a strategy that I have
gradually begun to develop. Not sure if it is the best way
to fly, but I have had some success. Basically,
jimsnyder is using it with many of his holdings.