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Power-One Inc. Message Board

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  • paul_g_power paul_g_power Nov 22, 2010 11:30 AM Flag

    Shorts - what's the worst that can happen

    Logical, I'm not saying it's not risky, I'd be crapping myself to be short on something as volatile as this. The worst case scenario would only really manifest itself with a take out as given the lowish market cap, we're probably talking $20 + for a take out. Not sure will the takeover happen of course.

    What's the impact of rising oil do you think? I note the 2011 forecast is $95 per barrel.

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    • Guys, what is the short story here?

      Any value guy looking at this and the valuation starts you salivating. enterprise value to trailing ebitda sub 4 times and the company is growing? I just want to hear the short story. Company is buying in shares which you usually dont do if you are nervous. The market is a long term inflation plus mid single digits grower I would imagine. I usually belive shorts do much more homework than longs and tend to love their research so if someone can point me to their analysis I would certainly appreciate it. In return if I get engaged in a stock I typically am value added, thanks. I do know some really savvy industry guys who like this compnay and its market.

    • <<we're probably talking $20 + for a take out>>

      PWER is generating $2/share in cash and that number is growing every quarter. To capture that sort of cash stream, the take out price will have to be higher than $20.

    • until PWER gets to 13$ where it deserves to be , I wouldnt put on my rally hat on any spike.

    • >>What's the impact of rising oil do you think?<<

      Fundamentally, I think that's more of a long-term issue than a short-term one, in that people will want to see sustained $100 oil prices before they start making major capital commitments because of them. However, in the short-term it could certainly drive up the solar sector purely for psychological reasons.

      Long-term, i think it's interesting that our power plants don't have anywhere near enough capacity to service massive fleets of plug-in electric vehicles; I wonder if rooftop-mounted solar-- as the costs are dropping so quickly-- could be a useful way to deal with that.


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