Perfect storm will sink PWER in Q1. SynQor ruling is dagger to Power BU and $43M cash loss. PPS will drop below $3.50. SLS will announce offer in Q2 to take private for $5/share. SLS will clean house, streamline operations, then wait until solar winter is over to sale to Panasonic for $15/share where Thompson could have cashed out in 2010.
Agree with you on potential take over to private. However, SynQor ruling is against 11 companies and it won't be under $9M at worst case scenario for PWER to pay. How did you come up with $43M. here are the companies that combined will need to pay.... Artsyn Technologies Inc., Astec America Inc., Bel-Fuse Inc., Delta Electronics Inc., Delta Products Corp., Power-One Inc., Murata Electronics North America, Inc. Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd., Murata Power Solutions Inc., Cherokee International Corp. and Lineage Power Corp.
It is as simple as reading the court document. You can find it on SynQor's website. In the original lawsuit P1 was ordered to pay $25M. The appeals court upheld that amount and then added a multiplier of 1.75 to it because P1 had continued to sell product violating SynQor's patents after the original court judgement. 1.75 x $25M = $43.75M.
akathemole, that should make PWER a hugely favorable buy below $4. I feel Honeywell and GE are both potential buyers, and I figured that buy price north of $12. I agree with you private equity is a major risk here, and I would urge management to resist any private equity buyer.
This is a very unusual situation, where the company has significant market share with relatively stable earnings power, but sells at net tangible assets because the peripheral industry of "solar" is a wasteland. The cyclical low of other solar segments is dragging PWER down with it. But PWER's market has almost nothing in common with solar panel production. The economics are different and more robust in inverters.
Expect the company to trade range bound $2.50 to $6 for two years and get a $12+ buyout within three years.
This is company SPECIFIC, it has nothing whatsoever to do with the solar industry as a whole... ENPH, SMA Solar, and AEIS are NOT having the same issues. The problem here is that management didn't have the foresight to see that they SHOULD have not put their eggs all in one basket i.e. Italy and Germany ONLY... Now, we the investors have to suffer while they TRY to enter into new territory... The analysts ARE NOT BEHIND THEM in any way, shape or form,,, which leaves them as naked bait for the shorts to do as they please.