I put in a buy order @ $3.50, about twenty-five cents over the 200 day moving average. If you're long WTZ, don't sell to me. Hold on and ride it out. Should be much higher this year. Good luck to all.
Thanks for the articles. The first link didn't work, but the second did. Very interesting read. I'll be sure to come check out the MarketWatch board. Another board I recently found that you may like (I don't post there, just read) is:
Also, here is an article I read over the weekend that I enjoyed a great deal (apart from the disturbing historical parallels). It's an edition of Marc Faber's Gloom, Boom & Doom report from June 2003.
Yes Greenspan will continue to paper over the economy and further debase our 'money' and will do whatever they can to maintain the status quo but we are not an island and individual debt can affect world intrest rates.
Also we are between a rock and a hard place, needing low rates to continue the engineering of the economy but also needing foreigners to continue to finance our debt to keep rates low. They must fund us to the tune of $500 billion a year to just stay 'stabilized'.
If they pull out or don't continue to fund the USD will drift lower and could even plunge. Can 'they' afford to chance that? I'm not sure they can and somewhat higher intrest rates might be acceptable to prop uo the dollar.
Regardless, the outcome is the same, ...negative. Hyper-inflation, deflation, perhaps two sides of the same coin.
I think debt collapse is inevitable or debt implosion brought on by our excesses.
Wars and depression are the gloomy forecasts and gold and silver at least may afford some protection.
We can thank our would be leaders of the past decades and the Federal Reserve who have robbed us blind and impovrished the world.
Hey,at least the Patriots won, though(Football).
sky-"Our deficit is at a point where intrest rates will be forced higher..."
I don't think so. More likely, they print more fiat and buy however many bonds it takes to hold rates steady. The dollar will decline to zero, but that's what they want to happen anyway.
Think about it. There is so much debt, a small increase in rates will wreck our economy. Why not just debase the dollar until the minumum wage is $500/hr and a loaf of bread is $200? Of course anyone without gold and silver will be without savings. opinions, pipe
I don't underestimate the- 'powers that be's'- ability to keep the debt pyramid scheme going but we have arrived close to a point when they possibly aren't in total control.
Our deficit is at a point where intrest rates will be forced higher and this will adversely affect the markets at some point.
Also foreigners that fund our deficit by buying our debt are now reluctant to further do so and we desperatly need for them to continue buying at least $500 billion a year of our debt.
What if the 'Islamics' unite and declare war on the dollar? Trade in their U.S. dollars for gold, maybe they could do some serious damage to the gold shorts and the USD.
Here is a couple articles which you may already have read but in case you haven't
(I have beau coup more if you like;-)
Also if you like discussing economics and even stocks and opinions, etc. check us out over @ MarketWatch. Click on the discussion boards(netsense board). Two posters of note who know far more than me are suamigo(economist) and cynical(great writer and knowledgeable). And he spells much better than I do.
Broad market never fully corrected because Greenspan flooded the system with money. He propped up U.S. equities with excess liquidity. Historic lows in mortgage rates led to record levels of refinancings, giving consumers money to spend - creating an illusion of economic health. Thus making people more willing to put their money back in the stock market.
I think eventually we will see a massive correction in the stock market. At least in inflation-adjusted terms. Could be that a market crash would drag down mining stocks with it, at least initially. Don't rule that out. When a panic hits, it drags down the good with the bad. The safest investment (and still the best value) is to buy physical silver & gold.
"here's a good question. rising valuations in both the broad market and PM markets are unusual if not unprecidented. will that correlation end on a correction in the broad market while the $ has a continued fall? i do not have a clue, but i am curious to find out."
I agree with most everything you said. The horrible employment numbers today reaffirm the fact that this recovery is mostly a mirage created by loose fiscal and monetary policies. And you are absolutely right about the data being misleading.
The key question, it seems to me, is how long can we keep up this devil's bargain with the Asian central banks to prop up the dollar and our bond market through currency intervention. I don't know the answer, but I am real worried about where we are headed economically as a nation. Eventually this is all going to collapse like a house of cards.
I hate to say it, but I think we are headed for a period of stagflation. Economic downturn, hyperinflation due to falling dollar, rising interest rates. When the dollar finally depreciates against ALL currencies we won't be worried about deflation anymore, because the price of imports from Asia will rise sharply. Asian markets will crash too because their export industries will be hammered, and because their trade surpluses are creating too much liquidity in the domestic markets and are fueling credit bubbles. Precious metals will be one of the few viable investments in that environment. But we are NOT THERE YET. When the stock market and the bond market tank at once - that is when the real PM bull market will hit.
Well, we've strayed pretty far from WTZ, but hey, I like to discuss these things. I'll say one thing though. Don't underestimate how long Greenspan, Bush & Co. and the Asian central banks can keep up this charade. They all have vested interests in the status quo and the longer this goes on, the more unwilling they will be to confront the problem due to its magnitude. It will take an exogenous trigger to light this powderkeg.
Until then, I think we will see some volatility in the PM markets. I still maintain there is at least one big correction on the horizon. Don't know when that will be, but I will be buying as much as I can get my hands on getting ready for the next leg up. I do think we will see WTZ back at $4.50, not sure if we go much lower than that.
The real risk with WTZ is not that the share price will crash and not recover, but that management will sell out too soon in response to a takeover offer. Let's hope they have the good sense to wait until the price is right.
As you see we did not get good news concerning unemployment. Even if we had they would be woefully inaccurate as are most of their skewered numbers.(on a side note for instance, "real world" inflation does not show up in government statistics.) Just to touch on this, U.E. numbers do not reflect those that have completely given up looking for work,which, if counted would reflect closer to 9.5% U.E.
Additionally 'under-employed' are not even considered an can actually skewer the numbers.
Consider an engineer, for instance recently laid off his $100,000 year job(the company, Emerson Electric, relocated 70% of their factories to China)(so their was more than one American job loss) but now these displaced workers are each working 2 or maybe 3 jobs to make, if lucky, $75,000 a year, struggling to meet the mortgage and going deeper in debt. But the numbers of 'new' jobs have increased because -1(job)+2(3?)= 1 or 2 new jobs net. Hooray! We are saved.
Intrest rates will most assuredly go up but I would rather be in PM stocks than the stock market as increased rates will cause far more damage there and many will look for safer havens, particularily against a falling dollar which will continue.
Consider fiscal deficits might place upward pressure on intrest rates, deter private investment, impede long-term productivity growth, endanger the vitality of Socail Security and Medicare programs, and slow growth in the rest of the world.(excerpt from IMF special report). Additionally increases in U.S. public debt(and it's huge already) can have significant impact on global intrest rates.
Consider almost half our debt is owned by foreigners and many are starting to pull out as confidence in the dollar wanes. We are highly dependant on these foreigners to fund our deficits but @ 1% how much longer will they stay? European bonds are much more attractive as is the euro, as are many Asian stocks, etc.
We need to sell one-half trillion dollars worth of debt securities each year just to off set our trade deficit.
After the election and by early 2005, Americans will start to realize how huge our bill is and things will start to unwind. Not gold stocks, but rather the engineered(by low intrest rates)illusion that is the stock market(The Grand Casino).
The best to you as well.
I say watch Newmont, the bellweather. When the POG goes up, and Newmont stays flat, that means the stocks are tapped out. When the PM market corrects, the juniors with no operations, earnings or dividends, and no hope of them for years (eg. WTZ), will fall the hardest. Expect it to fall to its 200 day but probably not below, if recent chart experience is any indication. Remember, almost no one is holding this stock for the future dividends, but rather the capital gain. When they see the stock price falling, they'll abandon ship and there will be a short but violent collapse in the price. I would anticipate the price will come back almost as fast as it went down, however. I still say this stock is going below $3.50, but briefly. Have your limit orders ready. My 2 cents.
agreed, in the near term gold is acting as a $ hedge. when will that change, can't say. will there be pull backs, certainly. i suspect when the fed signals a rate increase to counter the nose bleed drop of the $ we will see a real gold correction. anything can happen but greenspan clearly fears deflation, unemployment and the consequences of an early rate increase (dubya does for his own reason).
the EU failed to lower rates today signaling a continued strong euro. i suspect obligations in iraq & favorable exchange rates factored in somehow.
you mention fundamentals for a gold runup. i read somewhere once that the price of a good tailor made suit historicaly is reflected in the value of an ounce of gold. if thats the case, any real run in PM's will coincide with future hyper inflation which is certainly possible IMO.
when do gold fundamentals improve? i do not know. for now only hot sectors, reading the contrarians for clues, studying technicians for indicators and being ready to hunker down interest me.
that said any opinion is open for consideration except that we are in a resurrected bull market as advertised in the media.
here's a good question. rising valuations in both the broad market and PM markets are unusual if not unprecidented. will that correlation end on a correction in the broad market while the $ has a continued fall? i do not have a clue, but i am curious to find out.