As I look for the ultimate contrary play, this was recommended. I assume there is tremendous upside to this when the economy improves, but I'm guessing this only turns if there are signs of that really happening. I guess you can use URE as a hedge while possibly shorting home builders or are you people buying the dips knowing that eventually it will rise again? Sorry for the ignorant questions but am curious what experienced players of this have to say. Thanks.
Took a small position recently due to the fact I am in real estate and have somewhat of an understanding of what's happening. If you are looking out 6-12 months then I think there is some value here. If you are looking for a short term trade then it's anyones guess. My belief is Obama has stated that stemming forclosures is at the top of his list, then RE will get some mo. The news is so bad that if this market turns you will miss the first 20% of any rally. All that said, enter at you own risk!
Reading the other post I would have to disagree on there opinions. The TA look actually promising for a short term rally of 50%. That would put URE at 9.5-ish.
I am attaching this chart:
We see MACD tightening up, bollinger top band going horizontal with a pronounced upward bias, in a down market. Add to it the obligitory rallies into a major holiday and some nice profits are there to be taken.
I am going try and enter monday with a limit buy at $6.20 at the open (depending on futures) and bailout at $10.30 on a limit sell.
so I'm looking again. It was nice to see the volume over teh last couple of days. all of the above is right on with my thinking. while the gains "someday will be great" My TA says its still a little early. TA is the only way i trade. I think the banks will have to be first to make a rebound or nothing else matters. so i have been getting into UYG some at 11,9, 8, and 7.01. i got some UVG on 13th and its still above water even after today.
I also believe sometime next week (barring any real bad news anywhere) we will have a major rally across the board, overseas also.
now for the rub URE will go up but not to the same % as other sectors, retail and office space have yet to be impacted like other sectors.
but i doubt if URE has much downside from here, you might make some small buys, and ave in.
at least its a quiet board and not a lot of bs
Your questions are logical but the answers escape everyone on the planet at this time. This etf could be utilized as a hedge as you mentioned and/or an ambush hold for the recovery. However when said recovery is visible remains the mother of all guesses.
This could be range bound for so long your $$$ may be spent better elsewhere is my take - but that is conjecture. The downside appears somewhat limited, but it could also give up as much as another 50% for all I know. I get that this is fairly obvious, but the bottom line imo is that entry today could be way too early for any upside party.
*Technicals across the market are about useless as I've ever seen them as a forecasting tool.