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ProShares Ultra Real Estate Message Board

  • nvest80 nvest80 May 28, 2009 10:46 AM Flag

    Let's look at the news in more detail

    Headline: New-Home Sales in U.S. Climbed 0.3% to 352,000 Pace (Update1)

    They give you the impression as if things improved, yet if you read the entire article in detail, you will notice that sales are only up month over month. That's about as if we were saying that temperatures in the US rose for the third consecutive month in April. Of course they did.

    Now let's pay attention to the section that compares this april to last...

    "Sales of new homes were down 34 percent from April 2008. They reached a record-low 329,000 in January, down 76 percent from the July 2005 peak."

    This will be at 2.80 soon enough. The big guys are pumping this so that they can exit while the hopeful retail investor buys some shares above $3.

    Don't be a bag holder.

    And if you really think consumer confidence is up. That was a 5 question survey that only 5,000 people answered. Consumer spending number per RedBook that were released yesterday morning are down. Not a good sign but they didn't write much about those. Why would they, if you can sell into the hype from the survey, nobody needs the actual numbers of how things are going, right?

    And look what is happening on the default side...

    "The U.S. delinquency rate jumped to a seasonally adjusted 9.12 percent and the share of loans entering foreclosure rose to 1.37 percent, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today. Both figures are the highest in records going back to 1972."

    And here

    1 in 8 homeowners are defaulting on their mortgage. That is 12%, walk down the street and think about it for a second, every 8th home is late. Not a good sign for URE and all the RE holding ETFs and companies. It will get really ugly.

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    • Look at any stock a year ago...of course it's gonna be worse....the market crashed the past 9 months. The economy is recovering. It's on a month to month basis. It makes no sense to compare the markets future direction from where we were a year ago. It's a slow turnaround, and the economy is going to be looked at on a month to month basis, becuase of the crash. All signs are pointing to the economy recovering and coming out of this.

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