old news. RE may be slow for a few more years but int rates record lows and home prices best in years. CRE: no new projects. Still lots of inventory. May start to see demand start slowly biting into inventory 2nd qtr of this year. M&A activity by private investors is starting to pick up as those with huge cash reserves are starting to see the end.
I just released 130000sf office/warehouse space within 1 month of vacancy. fortunately the previous leasee was obligated to pay for the next 8 months. I gave conceeded 7 mo of rent which is about 2 mo over the previous standard before the downturn on a 5 year term. The SF lease price for office and warehous is the same as 3 years ago before the bust and 3net haven't changed. Maybe I was just lucky..... In the process, discovered the property is worth about $20+ sf over what I paid 4.5 years back. vacancies in my region are near the highs and have stopped increasing. Since very few applications for CRE permits, the invenoory should begin a slow decline. barring any major economic catastrophy, and assuming GDP growth remains steady CRE will be steady over the next 5 years.
I've read your postings and wonder why your even on this message board. the economy is recovering, the market is up, jobs are improving, Xmas sales were strong. Real estate is obviously coming back. You will find what you are looking for; no reason to let the truth get in the way of your story.
IMO commodity prices are being driven more by speculation than by a cheap dollar. They'll pop the commodity bubbles then short them. I don't day trade either. However URE is the only investment I'm planning on holding for the next five years. I see it tripling in that time. Look at the chart. That would put the price at half of what it was when the real estate bubble popped in 2007. The more URE goes up, the more shares I add to my position.
commodites prices are going up due to weak dollar. Speculators are only betting on a weaker $ and maybe growth in china, Brazil, India, etc. As far as where URE was, that really doesn't matter to me nor to URE itself. You can hold for the next 5 years if you like but I'm selling shares I'v had a 200% run up on. No need to be greedy and the prudent course of action is to take some profits. There are some better opportunities down the road.