2 Mil Shares Short About to Cover, $25 Price Target, Bullish Exec Commentary
great time for shorts to cover bc they are likely in the money plus they don't want to short this heading into the announcement of their trial results. Shorts should probably listen to Ram Selvaraju who thinks the stock is going to $25 and says $40 is possible. IRWD drug is valued at 10X Synergy's and the price discrepancy is not justified. IMHO synergy wouldnt be launching new related trials if the current one wasnt going great. Plus look at all the positive commentary from recent PR's:
this stock is going right back to $5 quick imho
quote from this quarter results:
""The third quarter of 2012 has been the most productive and exciting quarter in our history," said Gary S. Jacob, Ph.D., President and CEO of Synergy. "During this period, we successfully completed enrollment, totaling 951 patients, in our plecanatide Phase IIb/III clinical trial in CIC patients, and are on track to complete last visit in all patients by December 7. After that we will lock the database, analyze the data, and expect to release top-line data during the first week of January 2013. This has all been accomplished by a highly focused and dedicated Synergy team driven to provide new treatments for people suffering from GI disorders and diseases."
From Oct 22nd press release:
"In phase I and early phase II clinical testing, plecanatide exhibited an excellent safety profile, and patients in the phase IIa trial experienced relief from constipation without any remarkable diarrhea," said Stephen Comiskey, Synergy's Vice President for Product Development, who is presenting the preclinical data at the 20th United European Gastroenterology Week in Amsterdam, The Netherlands this week. "This summer Synergy achieved target enrollment in an ongoing phase IIb/III clinical trial of plecanatide in patients with chronic constipation, and we look forward to the results later this year."
from April 9th press release:
"We are pleased with the vigorous pace of enrollment in this ongoing trial and the overall enthusiasm from the more than 100 clinical sites currently engaged in this clinical trial," said Gary S. Jacob, Ph.D, President and Chief Executive Officer of Synergy Pharmaceuticals."
when they have tested their compound in humans it is not found systematically so it just works locally in the intestine. this is why its so safe and why they are starting new trials. they already know it basically cures constipation. monkey and human testing. this is why ram selvaraju calls sgyp's compound a risk mitigated asset
when it comes to market it will probably be promoted to normalize bowl movement. IRWD's drug over shoots and gives people diarrhea. plus their drug is derived from a bacterial toxin. not good
i copied this quote from a previous post....this is what top biotech analyst raghuram selvarju wrote in his last research report.
this quote is from June 2012 SGYP research report from Aegis Capital. They say IRWD owns about 40% of the rights. I've heard 38%, 39%, and 40% and these appear to be best guesses based on how end market demand plays out around the world. This excerpt is from Raghuram Selvaraju from Aegis, one of the top biotech analysts on Wall St. He is known as an intellectual superstar in biotech analyst world. He has $25 target and says $40 is possible for SGYP. Smart money follows him. He has long followed and recommended IRWD as well. He knows this class of drugs well.
"Based on the above publicly available information, we believe Ironwood’s share of linaclotide is roughly 40% of the drug’s total value. Furthermore, we note that the upfront payments alone in these agreements total $140 million. Given Ironwood’s
market cap of $1.2 billion (~$1.5 billion fully-diluted), we believe the current market value being assigned to linaclotide is approximately $3 billion. In contrast, Synergy’s 100% ownership of rights to plecanatide and related peptides is currently valued at $300
million. Despite linaclotide’s substantial lead on plecanatide, the considerable discrepancy in valuation between Synergy’s interest in plecanatide and the market valuation of linaclotide appears to be unwarranted, in our opinion. We would note that, if plecanatide were to be valued at a level similar to linaclotide, the implied price per share of Synergy stock would approach $40, without considering Synergy’s pipeline."