The real negative we have is a buyer for SGYP just needs to sit tight and observe the sales growth profile of IronWood's product, and let
IronWood spend the money to develop the visibility of the product. Then, when the time is right, purchase SGYP. It takes much of the risk out of the transaction, as if the sales of Lizz are slow, they can just wait.
you assume 1 interested buyer. when multiple parties are interested the dynamics and urgency changes. while waiting someone else will buy. that is the reality and this will be a $1.5-$2.5 billion take out.
The argument to that is: The potential buyer will also pay more of a premium as SGYP gets positive topline data from IBS in Q1 '14 which will further validate Placanatide and as they get closer to topline data for PH3 CIC indication there will be more big pharma companies willing to bid on and the bidding war will commence. Potential buyer may want to buy right after Topline data in Q1'14 and get at $20.. as apposed to paying $25+ which will save them half a billion... Either way end result is SGYP will get bought out and at a significant premium. Also dont forget that Placanatide has a better profile for side effect(diarrhea) and that will be their edge. From the numbers standpoint, the potenital buyer will own 100% of SGYP(2.5 times more than IRWD does)I mean this a huge advantage as IRWD only owns 40% of the drug. So sales quota can be adjusted accordingly when comparing to IRWD sales. So I believe there is a risk to waiting also if your a potential buyer. Also dont forget IRWD will be reporting sales Q3&Q4 which will give the buyer more opportunity to track their sales.. so IMHO we get a buyout in Q1 '14.
aseer2323, you missed my point completely. Even if SGYP's compound is biologically superior to IronWood's compound in every way, if IronWood's sales are weak over the next 12 months, it means that this is not a good market for prescription drugs, and the existing treatments, what ever they are, are meeting the need of patients. That is the biggest risk you have.