What I think people fail to realize (my view, anyhow) is that the Compton "flip" is gonna put a BIG chunka change in the cash till and yield, roughly, a 3-bagger for a quick return on the cash outlayed in buying the whole darn shooting match...and we haven't even allowed for the 9-figured tax "credits" which are being "packaged" for future "sale" of some sort nor (not insignificantly) have we completely factored the potential "partnerships" to be formed as the future cashflow is developed and returned to MFC in various and sundry forms from the "operating" company.
Then there's Pea Ridge...Low iron Ore prices or not, THERE's ONE HECKAVA LOT of "understated" assets that are waiting for the official tally to be put on the books and, I would guess, some additional "new" operating/profit sharing partnership agreements.
Negative wise...Wabush, Goa and the Plastic Business. At This point, with the sale of the Compton "parts" and the cash on hand, who cares?
MS mentioned an upcoming "Road Show"...Question now is will it be before or after Pea Ridge numbers?
This company is so under-valued that you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see a huge upside over the next few years. My guess is still, $20 "book" around the first of the year.
I'm also long here, but not sure how meaningful the stated book is until they start getting better ROE - if they aren't earning anything on the legacy businesses, the new businesses prob. only keep the stock where it is - it will just trade at a low P/B, justifed by a low ROE - if at some point it becomes clear Cliff is going to reinvest in Wabush, Goa comes back online, and plastics margins pick up, then there is upside -
Don't see a lot of downside here given cash position. They will prob. announce another acq. before too long, and hopefully it's cash generative (vs. Pea Ridge). Also, hopefully Compton produces some cash in 4Q. 3Q was pretty weak from earnings standpoint (but didn't include Compton).