If there are any such investors here, have you tried to calculate discounted cash flow of DRYS earnings? Under the most optimistic scenario, DRYS is going to earn $30 per share in 2008 and 2009, but what is the residual value after the inevitable crash in freight rates following the current boom for dry bulk newbuilding orders. It can hardly be more than $20 per share, but the market valuation is probably going to much lower or even negative.
I guess the majority of people here are momentum traders and not long-term value investors, so what will trigger you to close your position? Technical indicators?
Inevitable crash ???
If you cant make a shipload of money in DRYS by the timeframe that you mentioned, then you should not be trading - Period.
Well, if you want to wait for that crash and experience it, then that is totally different story. Go ahead and be a part of it.
5/15/09 is my limit..or when the 08 4th quarter eps comes out. While your comments certainly have foresightful merit, I figure that 5/09 will be the peak. 2 years from now is too long. I may sell before that timeif the stock approaches 200...& who know, may change my mond before then depending on how much money my wife spends on my grandchildren.
Where do you see an "inevitable crash in freight rates"? I admit i've lost my ouija board and my entire collection of crystal balls, but i see a gradual slowdown starting in late 2008 when the massive newbuilding programmes will begin to have an effect.
On the other hand, i don't see the Chinese and especially the Indian economy hibernating. Both countries are investing massively in creating some sort of middle class. This requires enormous investments, and there is only one way to get the neccessary raw materials there - by dry bulk.
I'm long term on anything that even smells like dry bulk.
I'll be doing research on Zacks, Fidelity and CNBC, reading posts by audio, play_tow and foo, if they hang in. I'll be watching the BDI and the industry. BDI may go down, it may go up. There could still be a ship shortage in 2009. I will sell some or all when it seems to risky or I think I can make better money in something else.
How does a company reach negative valuation? Do you think the shippers will pay manufacturers? Ha ha.
That whole post sounds like it was from someone who is either an anal accountant or someone very confused.
It's going to be newbuilds vs. demand and demand for commodities continues its upward trajectory. Excluding some market or international event, my dice say we stay strong for longer than most currently predict..jmho
There are lots of long term investors here, and we are making a fortune. I intended to stay through 2009, but was rethinking this based on politicians and US Elections, it might be better to get out at the end of 2008. See my Macroeconomic trends thread today.
The shipping market looks strong until 2010, then who knows?