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DryShips, Inc. Message Board

  • osulinn osulinn Aug 7, 2010 11:23 AM Flag

    Job recovery rate is actually normal


    I think we pay much attention to the number. Well, politicians and media like to make a run on this issu.

    Employment improvement usually starts slowly as economy recovers. Historical speaking, it may stay flat a couple months occasionally even during the upswing.

    As economy recovery sticks, companies will start hiring more and which, in turn, boost the economy and more hiring.

    If you plot the unemployment rate in a monthly chart, you typically see an inverted bell shape curve.

    Now. Of course, we are under an extreme condition that it has not happened since the Great Depression. Any wrong move may tip the normal healing process.

    The good thing comes out of the Great Depression is that countries have learned that protectionism will harm the recovery (as it did in the Great Depression).

    I am confident that the world economy is heading the right direction. US will come out strong.

    The only concern I have is the Obama/socialism may do the damage later.

    And, of course, we need to bring back the troops. It continues to cost us a fortune. It hurts our brave kids.

    We need to cheer up. Spreading yet-happened double-dip news is not doing any of us good. Recovery needs confidence from everyone of us.

    Stop whining and worry. Let us get ready for some football games. World cup is not as exciting as our American Gladiator games. Football "coliseums" are as close as where you can image how people in the Roman Empire enjoy their life.

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    • Inverted bell shape...

      Paradigm shift: Global recovery and expansion.

      Global companies will make more money as US recovery takes root. It also brings up the conditions for the rest of the world.

      Yes. That including MiddleEast.

    • Normal for what, the Great Depression?

    • There hasnt been a recovery yet, but we are patiently waiting for it to unfold. BDI at 2000 is not recovery as I see it. Thats why we got DRYS at a ridiculous PPS.

      • 1 Reply to ving0000
      • The economy has recovered some what. US has GDP growth.

        Big banks have more cash on reserve.

        The lost jobs have been recovered at very slow rate.

        A lot of developing countries have recovered more than us.

        A lot of global companies have recovered significantly. That is why their earnings are good.

        The job recovery in US is till bad. Hence, economy here in US still no where close to the peak.

        Of course, stock market is far away from the peak.

        That is why we should try to gain from it.

        I have said this many times. If everything is out of woods and the economy is good, the stock market will not be at this level.

        Stock market will NOT sit until that everything is good and every risk is gone. If fact, that may be the time to sell.

        BDI will be very hard to return to the frenzy peak level. Just like the housing sales will be very hard to get to the peak level.

        The existing housing sale is actually above historical normal. (The housing bubble distorted the numbers.)

    • I can only see one problem with your post. It is when you said "I think". The rest of it is pretty normal, but you should stay away from that thing I mentioned. It isn't for you.

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