Capes leading the way down, again. Panas may slip under $5k daily next week. All classes below daily break even and the flood of new ships that was forecast for January happened and is showing up in available tonnage in both basins.
89.3mdwt of the fleet is 20 years old and half of that amount is over 25 years. As of 1/18 scrapping already was at 1.5mdwt. So with 13.3 % of the fleet at 20 years plus lets see if these low rates produce another year of 5 % scrapping of the fleet.
I'd like to find a breakdown of those numbers according to size of ship.
So far I'm having trouble finding them, though I've seen it in researching.
The Capes and Panas are the only thing pertinent to DRYS.
And in general, the average age and life expectancy of Capes is younger than Handies.
A month ago Hellenic had the average age of Capes at 7 years old, and only 3.5% of the Capes were over 25 years old.
The number of Panas over 25 was 10%.
Of the likely candidates for scrapping, age obviously the key factor but also, pre 1997 capes were under 170,000 dwt. and considered likely.
And any converted oil tankers would present a likely candidate.
Just being a likely candidate doesn't necessarily get the job done.
And any healthy increase in rates will put an end to scrapping of ships under 20.
I'll try to find it, but a huge percentage of Capes and VLOC's are under five years old.