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DryShips, Inc. Message Board

  • audiophul audiophul Feb 1, 2013 3:10 PM Flag

    Break down of Capes and Panas by year of build

    First, it needs to be understood that there were NO Capes prior to 1975. By 1980, only 5 had been built. Then, Vale convinced Japan to buy their ore and sail around the Cape on ships large enough to make economic sense. So here you go since 1980. Keep in mind the average size of each class is 30% larger now.

    We'll call 60-120k Panas, anything larger, Capes

    1981 Panas 56 Capes 25 Others 140
    1982 Panas 69 Capes 24 Others 168
    1983 Panas 50 Capes 8 Others 160
    1984 Panas 59 Capes 15 Others 296
    1985 Panas 18 Capes 20 Others 289
    1986 Panas 21 Capes 25 Others 156
    1987 Panas 27 Capes 16 Others 59
    1988 Panas 16 Capes 8 Others 25
    1989 Panas 33 Capes 15 Others 58
    1990 Panas 30 Capes 37 Others 56
    1991 Panas 17 Capes 13 Others 54
    1992 Panas 6 Capes 17 Others 46
    1993 Panas 34 Capes 28 Others 39
    1994 Panas 58 Capes 28 Others 93
    1995 Panas 61 Capes 34 Others 158
    1996 Panas 47 Capes 48 Others 175
    1997 Panas 78 Capes 41 Others 183
    1998 Panas 59 Capes 11 Others 145
    1999 Panas 63 Capes 27 Others 103
    2000 Panas 65 Capes 29 Others 93
    2001 Panas 117 Capes 34 Others 158
    2002 Panas 57 Capes 21 Others 148
    2003 Panas 25 Capes 32 Others 104

    Prior to 1980, 71 Panas were built. Most drybulkers were small coastal minibulkers with their own gear. There wasn't much drybulk moving around at all prior to then. So it is a HUGE mistake the think that you can scrap a ship for each one you build. You can NOT scrap a ship that was never built. And scrapping a 60k pana and replacing it with an 83k Kamsar doesn't reduce the fleet by as much as the bulls would like. With 250 Capes being built this year that are about 30% larger than in the 80s and 90s, the scrapping would need to take EVERY cape built prior to 1996 out of the fleet. Problem is they already took out a couple hundred in 2009-2012. So scrapping becomes a smaller factor every month. Then it ceases. If they are scrapping ten year old bulkers, every US traded drybulker will have folded well in advance.

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    • how many are operating still? how many panas built in the 80's that can be scrapped yet? I agree the industry is in a world of hurt. You almost have to pay someone to own a Pana these days.

      • 1 Reply to tshotglass
      • "how many are operating still?"

        AT this point, those built in the 80s are finding it hard to get voyages. Several reasons for that. Fuel consumption is one, since they carry less cargo, the per ton cost is higher. They are much more expensive to maintain. Rightship rates them one star if over 19, so most major ore miners won't touch them as is the case with major grain houses.

        If you really wanted, you can go to Nilimar and pull up each weekly report for the last seven years and count all the panas and capes that have been scrapped and you will know that answer. Part of the reason data put out by many brokers is so bad is that it is a lot of work and the sources are somewhat iffy.

        Modern ships have beacons that make tracking them easy. Older ships, they tend to not be so easily traced. Just like newbuilds, many companies don't bother to report activity especially if the ships are not classed by the top societies, and thus, uninsured. You'd be surprised how much cargo travels around the world on ships of dubious lineage and ownership, especially in Asia and Africa.

 
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