Maybe its the brokers and institutions that haven't bought enough long yet OR they are Short...Something is keeping these shippers stock prices well in check as the BDI continues to climb its not reflected in pps across the dry bulk shippers share price...Something doesn't smell right!
Mw, while I have never thought much of analyst predictions!! But they got to work with info, avaliable and furnished by Co!! In 2011, Drys had all those Panamax leased at good rates! Owned 78% of Orig.. And Orig bringing on 4 newbuild rigs in 2011, which were to have big earnings? What analyst and everybody was missing... In 2009, 2010 + 2011, while Drys was reporting good earnings.. They also sold an additional 280M shrs of Drys stk, into the mkt.. And was borrowing ever penny they could against newbuilds... Drys should have been floating in cash, when first newbuild rig showed up in Jan, 2011.. Yet GE sold 22% of Orig for $500M, to take delivery of that first newbuild rig.. What happened to all the money from stk sales and all that borrowed money??? Lot of things didn't turn out as they appeared in 2010 + 2011?? My understanding. From 2005 till 2011, GE had started Drys with 6, 21yr old bulkers.. And already made himself a few billion dollar.. (thats where the money went) !! I do believe with Orig, finally reporting some earnings last qtr!! GE may quit taking all the money?? In the mean time.. Check to see on this ER.. What he has done with those 4 newbuild Panamax, that he ordered in Dec 2011, the last time rates were going up for Panamax.. Then as rates tanked.. Dumped them on Drys!! He announced, that in Feb 2012??
I can't imagine why they ain't putting a strong buy on all these drybulkers about now!!! But they have all, already took big moves on increase in bulker rates.. What I am wondering about?? Have the drybulkers got together and holding part of drybulkers off the mkt, to drive rates up like this?? Seems a little funny, for there to have been such a glut of bulkers? For rates to have fallen as low as they had over last few yrs.. Then in one mth, for them to have jumped like they have? Drys had a lease on one of thier capes expire last qtr at $10K per day.. Turned around and leased it for about a yr @ $11.5K per day.. Now they are leasing for $40K per day??? BTW: That big jump in Capes, ain't doing Drys any good right now.. Other than value of capes going up!!! Next cape available to lease will be in like March or April 2014! Lot of water will have went over dam, by then?
Analysts are herd creatures. It's seldom one comes out and makes a call contrary to the "group think" of the herd. There's analytical safety in numbers. Easier to use the logic of "everybody else felt the same way" should the dynamic go against your rationale, eh?
So you have to wait for the bold outliers to lead the way of the rest of the "me too" herd. Once those outliers commence.....well....Can the rest say...Moooooo? ;-)
If you think the way all this is playing out is hurting George Economue.. Think again!! He let it be know in last qtrly report.. That 2 of bulkers, that Drys was taking a bloodbath on, and paying cash for someone to take them off Drys hands!! Were being bought by an affiliate!! I suspect it was, his privatly owned Co??? You couldn't have wrote a better scenerio, for GE!! Has all this been one big game for GE and other ship owners in Greece, that took all these drybulkers public in 2005??