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DryShips, Inc. Message Board

  • felipo3 felipo3 Jan 15, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    Tanker rates up again today ( interbanko ).

    This year will be amazing!!!

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    • were can i see the tanker rates?

    • this is a hint at what the BDI numbers will be tomorrow, right? tia

      • 1 Reply to custombatz
      • No. Tanker rates and drybulker rates are not affected by the same factors. Drybulk doesn't travel through any real choke points like tankers do and there isn't much dry bulk heading to Northern European ports that need heating oil. Bulker rates are affected mainly by China. As China eases off on the pedal a bit, rates for bulkers do as well.

        But as said many times, DRYS is not really affected by the BDI, but rather the BPI. Their Capes that need reset are actually coming from lower rates than they can likely get now for a one year time charter. One expired in November at $10,000 per day. One is expiring in May at $23,500 per day, one in June at $11,500 per day, one in August at $26,000 and one in October at $26,250. The average of the five is $19,450. Current spot for Capes is $13,168 after a very steep two week decline. One year time charters however are going for about $20,000 for the dozen or so that have been signed in the past month. The BPI has not fallen as steeply.

        But right now there is a rather dark cloud forming over the otherwise sunny dry bulk landscape…. new build orders. The crazy #$%$ owners have ordered nearly 500 in just the last three months, with 57 of them THIS PAST WEEK alone. That essentially increases the 2015/2016 order book by 60%!!!! So much for the glut of bulkers ending. The only cure for this is going to be, once again. very low rates for an extended period of time. Like in 2010-2013. Lots of records in the ship breaking business due to low rates. Let's do that again.

    • someone didn't like your post, Felipo Probably Mills. lol

    • Do the rates change daily?

      • 2 Replies to iacorn6363
      • Yes, they change daily. Suezmax rates (DRYS has four) on the route which Intertanko considers "indicative" were up $1945 to $67,076 today. Aframax rates (DRYS has six) were up $2441 to $60,704. VLCC rates were even up $8,239 to $21,255 today.a DRYS has none of those though.

        The problem is that these rates are being propped up by weather mainly. Congestion in ports and parts of the world with choke points caused by fog and short days shrinks the available fleet. This inevitably reverses. And when Suezmaxes get $60k for a trip that a VLCC could also do for 1/3 the money after ballasting to that area, that adds additional pressure to rates.

        There are new restrictions about passage through the Straits that make ships over 150 meters overall and carrying hazardous cargo join up as convoys prior to transit. This adds additional time and delays on top of any weather or problems with collisions in the narrow passageways

      • Yes, in interbanko u can see the rates for each type of tankers, unfortunately the site doesnt show the rates for specific routes.

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