Google "BDI Index and Bloomberg" and you can see a chart of the BDI Index price.
You will notice that in most of October the BDI Index was in the 1800-2100 range. In November it floated down to 1600 range. Then it rocketed up at the end of November to 2300 max for most of December. So, just by visually looking, ti appears the BDI Index from October through November was around 1900.
Now, in January, the first week the BDI Index plummeted to below 1500 and settled near 1100 by the last week of January and we are still stock after 3 weeks around 1100. So, so far the average for January and most of February so far the average is around 1300 for the BDI Index.
Now the huge SPIKE in the October and December of the BDI Index was due to end of year push by the Chinese to stock inventory that they have not worked off. There is no drive now to do much shipping due to this stockpile and you will unlikely see 2000 BDI Index again for quite a while. That is why last week and this week it has only moved up +1% a day.
This tells you the next quarter will be a disaster with revenues down sharply and the losses even more.
Look at the BDI Index chart yourself to see the disaster unfolding.
Now you know why revenues were so high for this announced quarter. But what now if the BDI Index has fallen some 50% this quarter? So, Revenues are going to drop dramatically.
not how I read it.... there are waiting 20 loads of fertilizer alone and the bad weather makes a seasonal. delay we may see a boom in shipping over the next 4 months and I have my shares..
I am glad you can see Jesus and Santa Claus in front of you. Right....the BDI Index is the average shipping rates from brokers and the 3 months October-December is almost DOUBLE average so far for January -February...... so yeah, DRYS is going to make up for that half pricing so far and make the same revenues and not lose more money.
Can ANYONE explain how they can even match the current revenue of this quarter and not lose more money if the BDI Index is 40-50% less so far this year compared to October -December?
It is just common sense when you see the BDI Index for October -December averaging 1800-1900
And now averaging just 1200-1300 for January -February....that the next quarter earnings will be not only works in revenues but larger losses.
Look at the 3 month chart for October, November, December for the BDI Index compared to the BDI Index for January and February and you see a -40% downturn. Can imagine how bad the next earnings report will be now? That is why the stock is tanking and will continue to tank to $3.
Asian stocks with sharp losses do to the China Purchasing Manager's Index is down to 48.3 in February from 49.5 in January.
By Lisa Twaronite
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks tumbled on Thursday and the yen firmed as a survey painted a grim picture of China's manufacturing sector, heightening uncertainty about the outlook for the region's economic powerhouse.
Equities were already on the back foot after minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting showed it remained on track to taper its stimulus.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan extended losses after the China survey, losing 0.7 percent, while Japan's Nikkei stock average (NIK:^9452) was down 1.2 percent.
The preliminary China Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from HSBC/Markit for February fell to a seven-month low of 48.3 in February from January's final reading of 49.5, as employment fell at the fastest pace in five years.
"The building-up of disinflationary pressures implies that the underlying momentum for manufacturing growth could be weakening," said Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China at HSBC, in comments accompanying the PMI data.
Let me simplify all this.. In 4th qtr.. TCE for Drys fleet was over $13K per day.. Now capes and panamax, leasing at $10K per day.. That fleet of Panamaxes of Drys, on spot.. Are the concern.. Now leasing @ $10.1K per day.. And rates for them dropping daily!! Do the math!! Things looking bad!! Now you know why GE been selling..