If the bdi can climb and hold a little, orig brings div. and charters go from spot to locked up is it possible or no way.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
10 is easier... problem is the increased number of shares. 20 might be ambitious. if the cycle is typical the dividend will be very high at the top and time to sell. spring is almost here and we should see a surge in barge rentals and a leap in the bdiy. this is alo seasonal point. by my simple addition there has been purchased enough phosphate for 40 barge loads but the smart guys on the board could re calculate that..chinese and indians have to eat and buy corn soybeans and fertilizer ,,,,,. and soon
I'm thinking $10 this summer and possibly $20 for the end of the year. Here's why...This sector goes up when the world economy as a whole goes up. Right now there's a global GDP estimate of about 3.6% growth for 2014. And after things looks very bad in Europe the last 5 years, this year it's considerably better. The other aspect of why this stock should hit $20 is that once the MFM (mutual fund managers) start pushing this stock higher is will be like a frenzy to get more. Market momentum is a very powerful thing (look at TSLA the last six mos.). When this stock hit $5, that meant the stock was up over 200% from the lows last summer. People will look for good returns on their $. The improving fundamentals of this sector can't be shrugged off any more!
I agree with you, easily $10 by summer if the trend becomes our friend! BDI, spot rates, oil tankers on the move, dividend and MLP. I throw valuations out the door, it's about momentum and trend here and this beaten up sector, since 2008, is due for a long sustained run……I'm a heavy fan of DRYS, due to fact it's not a pure play…..ORIG in itself is the genius behind GE's MO and only the shorts bash it. Had GE not had ORIG, DRYS would likely be gone by now….long gone. DRYS ability to draw off ORIG from 2010-2012, was huge and after listening to some of us, hint hint, he finally got smart and used ORIG as collateral instead of sharing off the shares…..which has kept ORIG shares in the high teens. If many recall, he'd sell shares and it would dip to low teens. A serious roller coaster ride. They have now pulled ORIG as collateral, re-financed debts and are better position to start moving ahead, quickly. It's been a real chess match and not many give GE credit for navigating rough seas. I think at some point, hopefully soon, his genius will shine. I'm a long investor…..can't wait for this one to start moving in $1's, not cents…..THE VALUE INVESTOR
Not only will Drys NOT hit $20 this year it will NEVER hit $20 again imho for several reasons (I'm long 7500 shares split between 2 accounts) ~ First there is 450M shares outstanding ~ Second, the BDI was in the stratosphere and spot rates were in the 6 digit range when Drys (and others) were flying high ~ Third, the world economy was on a tear until it crashed and burned (and hasn't recovered nor has worldwide employment that drives a goods and services economy) ~ and maybe most important with Drys pinned in this range the WS #$%$ can quite easily play their "Calls and Puts" games and make a fortune with very little risk and capital outlay as Drys "yo-yo's" between $2.75 and $4.75 ~ I think we'll be lucky to close out the year above $7.50 (again imho) ~ GLTA!
I think it depends on how high the BDI (especially Cape rates) goes. Based on the past, I believe the
BDI would at least have to triple, ORIG perform well, and DRYS continue to benefit from spot rates
rather than contracting fixed rates. That might get us to 10; but that's almost a two hundred % gain.
I'll take that.