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ECC Capital Corp. Message Board

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  • tsjaxson tsjaxson Nov 30, 2006 1:20 PM Flag

    This does not add up!!!

    I agree. If you read pretty far into into the press release dated November 14th you will see that they plan to distribute "at least 1.60" to shareholders. See excerpt below:

    "Following any sale of the remaining assets and/or the realization, over time, of cash flows from the Company's residual interests, ECC Capital presently believes that it will be able to make total distributions over time to its stockholders of at least $1.60, which includes the initial distribution specified above. ECC Capital intends to maintain its REIT status for the period of time during which it holds the residual interests in its securitizations."

    At current prices of $1.20 this implies a 33%+ return. As in any liquidation the variables now become 1) will they indeed distribute at least $1.60 and 2) what will be the timing? As for timing - it seems $0.80 will be forthcoming in the next month or so. I would expect the remaining $0.80+ to come out over the next 6 to 18 months. This adds up to a 20%+ annualized return with significant downside protection.

    I am not suprised that the market is offering this up. There is probably significant selling from tradtional investors unaccustomed to liquidation plays. Tax loss selling probably also playing a role. Fine with me - creates an opportunity for the patient investor.

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