both dailies here today have stories on slowing visitor arrivals to Hawaii. Transpac will continue to be depressed until something changes, either growth resumes or capacity declines. Yields will suffer as well. The additional capacity HA is bringing on will come at the expense of lower yields cause I certainly don't see pricing power in Transpac in the near future. Promotions galore!
It's structural with Hawaii, but HA can take the lead with respect to their kuleana and Mr. Dunkerley is taking care of HAs kuleana. Keep the course and let externals fall into place!
Technically the chart stay broken for now. Fundamental picture has to clear before technicals can improve. Not to mention the market debacle yesterday! Chee Hoo!
BTW - I did my part by flying to Kauai this past weekend with 8 other friends. The load was ~98% going there Friday and 90% coming back Sunday. Load factors baby! 4 of the 8 of us travelled on $20 o/w fares though - there went the yield! LOL. It's all good...
HA is not doomed to BK again. Aloha is the weak link on the three majors in HI. The private equity firm controlling Aloha will very shortly start applying their strategy of off loading the airline. It's either a merger for cash and stock with HA, or a complete buyout from Mesa. Both are good for Aloha owners. As for Mesa, it would be preferable to buy out Aloha and pick up a significantly large position in the market without organic growth pressures.
Bottom line.... Ha and Aloha have been mis-managed for decades. Having ripped out the customer for interisland fares of the past has made both suffer the result. As they say.... what comes around, goes around. HA will survive now.