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OncoMed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • indianabraden indianabraden Dec 8, 2013 11:24 AM Flag

    FORM D was filed on Friday, Dec 6th, 2013


    Exempt Offering of Securities to Officers of the company valued in the amount of $22,249,996. -
    See NASDAQ SEC Filings for OMED. This is part of the market culture and always has been. These are granted shares outside of the market float and at some point, on the sale of them by these insiders, represents a form of eventual dilution, which is nothing new. It's natural insider wealth creation.
    Also, and separately, if the float prior to the partnership for the six anti-cancer candidates in the stem cell pipeline was roughly 28M shares and roughly 1.5M shares were bought at $15.13, then it makes sense in my view that a beginning point would be to value 29.5M shares @ $15.13, which gives OMED a $446,335,000. market capitalization there. But, adding the upfront payment of $155M, when added to that capitalization gives OMED a market cap of $601,335,000. when divided by 29.5M shares give s a pps of $20.38.
    This calculation doesn't take into account any incentives/royalties/potential developments beyond what actually contributes to the actual capitalization now.
    The IPO was roughly 6 months ago and had traded down from a $30 + high at that open (5+M share volume), and what's interesting is that there were two gap downs on relatively low volumes compared to the volume on the day of the IPO. Those gap downs were from $26+ to $23.47 (377K volume) and from that area down to $20.13 (526K volume) . Since then, prior to the major news this week, the daily volume had become anemic - trading at below 100K shares/day at times, and the short interest, interestingly enough, gapped up in October into November near the lows since the IPO, so the shorts (1M shares +) got caught on the gap up and had to BEGIN covering at the open with the price already gapped up.
    The pps movement down created millions of shares underwater for the last 6 months, so on strong volume (consistent w the IPO volume), there were sellers on the gap up. What we are seeing the last 3 days is the selling ending.

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