huge volume today and we're down. in fact,
catellus has been drifting lower for the last several
weeks; but have there been negative announcements;
analyst downgrades? I follow the mission bay story
because I live in the SF area and it's going fine.
I may be wrong, but I do think there's explosive
potential in their California real estate tracts. You live
here so you know how quickly the market has moved from
cold to super-hot. Their other holdings are also in
good markets--Phoenix, Chicago, and Dallas.
you have Catellus in your IRA, a nice feature is its
relative safety as a long-term holding. Technology is
regularly replaced by newer technology, but there's only so
much real estate and it never goes out of style.
Especially in places like San Francisco, where that Mission
Bay holding looks right over the water at the bay
bridge, and in Orange County, which you know just keeps
growing and growing.
Good luck. We both may be in
weeping and wailing five years from now--but I doubt it.
One investor's financial corpse is another
investor's seed money.
Myself, I'm more of a farmer than
a mortician. I don't mind waiting a year or two if
I can see explosive growth at that time horizon.
Others move on if it's unlikely the stock will revive in
a month or two.
Two years from now I think
the price appreciation in CDX stock will more than
make up for the waiting. I'm not alone in that
thinking. Value Line expects the stock price to be between
25 and 40 in the 2002-2004 window. At 40 that would
give a 35% annual total return.
And Value Line
may be low and late in their projection. Catellus has
a sold portfolio of development property in
California, and California real estate is back on track
increasing in value and scarcity after a decade of being in
the doldrums. (I feel that firsthand, because I just
closed on a home in Ventura.) Catellus has some great
locations which should be coming to the market soon, like a
great piece of property in San Francisco.
my Catellus several months ago to raise cash for the
home closing. I bought back in several weeks ago
because I know it's a solid developer with a great
portfolio, and at the currently depressed price I couldn't
I can wait for a year or two. So I don't consider
CDX "dead money."
The Wall Street Journal reported that Catellus
has negotiated to sell a $200 million white elephant
in Los Angeles, called, curiously enough, the "Blue
Whale." It is West Holywood's Pacific Design Center with
713,000 square feet of space. The WSJ says the building
was "saddled with vacancies" and that CDX and its
Laguna Niguel (CA)partner have been struggling to make
the mortgage payment "for several
That's some sort of good news for Catellus and the only
story I know about.
The reason for the swoon in this stock is that
Money Magazine gave it thumbs up. Everytime I listen to
them, the stock plummets. I bought at 15 and has
steadily gone down the tubes. Could be a dog. I will hold
long term and see what happens.
A great stock is